| Bad weather,large-scale events,holidays and other factors lead to a surge in residents’demand for bus travel surge,resulting in a large number of passengers gathering at bus stops in a short period of time,which in turn lead to problems such as crowding of platforms and buses,and long waiting times fo passengers.However,most of the current research on the impact of bus passenger flow focus on transmission mechanism and evacuation strategy,ignoring the remaining capacity and resilience of the bus system.Based on this,this-thesis carries out the analysis and evaluation research on the resilience of urban bus system under the impact of passenger flow,so as to provide the basic theoretical support for improving the emergency response capacity of the urban bus system and improving the stability and reliability of operation by introducing the concept of resilience.Firstly,the impact of passenger flow on urban bus system is divided into two types:single point and corridor.Combined with the impact of passenger flow impact on urban bus system,the thesis analyzes the function loss and function failure state of urban bus system under passenger flow impact,and uses the resistance ability and recovery ability to represent the resilience of urban bus system.Based on the operation and questionnaire survey data of regular bus No.916 in Zhengzhou city,an example is analyzed.The results show that:(1)On July 20,the subway stopped operation after the rainstorm,and a large number of subway passengers were transferred to the regular bus,which impacted the regular bus system.(2)Under the impact of passenger flow,compared with travel time,passengers’ perception of space congestion is more sensitive.Then,mean method and second-moment method are used to analyze the resistance capacity of urban public transport system,and the corresponding index calculation model is built.Based on large-scale events and subway shutdown scenarios,the areas within 1 km of Zhengzhou International Convention and Exhibition Center and Henan Sports Center,as well as sections of Jinshui Road and Huayuan Road,which are both main roads,were selected respectively to conduct case analysis on the resistance capacity of the conventional bus system under the impact of single-point and corridor passenger flow.The results show that:(1)Considering only the mean value,because the scale of bus stops and routes around the convention and Exhibition Center is much larger than that of the provincial sports center,its average resistance capacity in each period of time is about 6 times that of the provincial sports center.The average resistance capacity of Jinshui Road bus corridor is 40.8%lower than that of Huayuan Road.(2)When using the second-moment method with both mean and variance,it is found that the average resistance capacity of the conventional bus system around the convention and Exhibition Center is slightly lower than that of the provincial sports center,and the resistance capacity of the Jinshui Road and Huayuan Road bus corridor is basically the same.Finally,according to the number of waiting stations,recovery curve and resilience index are used to analyze the resilience of urban bus system,and the corresponding index calculation model is built.Based on the conventional public transport system within 1 km of Zhengzhou International Convention and Exhibition Center and Henan Sports Center,an example analysis of the recovery capacity of the bus transport system under the impact of single-point passenger flow is carried out.The results show that:(1)The recovery curves of urban public transport stations and systems under the impact of passenger flow are in line with the rule of monotone linear growth.(2)The resilience of the two bus systems to the passenger flow shock is similar.But the sensitivity of the resilience of the bus system in the exhibition center to the time of the passenger flow shock is obviously higher than that of the bus system in the provincial sports center. |
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