Study On Evaluation And Strategy Of China’s Maritime Transport Channel Public Security Based On The Perspective Of Vulnerability And Capability

Maritime transport channel is an important channel for the outreach of every littoral countries, which is essential to national security and economic development. Since the great geographical discovery, the history of world powers’ success or failure is also a history of maritime transport channel changes to some extent.China has four main maritime channels in the direction of northeast, east, southeast and southwest, which lead to the Arctic, the Pacific Ocean, Southeast Asia to Oceania and the Indian Ocean respectively. These channels are not only the "artery" that ensures economy health movement of China, but also have an important strategic significance to maintaining the security of China’s territory and sovereignty. About 90% of China’s foreign trade total amount are dependent on maritime transportation. The security of maritime transport channel is directly related to China’s major economic interests and the healthy and stable economic development. Recently, disputes about the South China Sea and the East China Sea continuously have heated up and the trends of fishing illegally and tort have risen. In addition, piracy, terrorism, ecological environmental changes and other non-traditional security factors form the new threats and challenges for the security of maritime transport channel. We must take a precaution measures towards these issues. So we should evaluate the public security of maritime transport channel scientifically as well as make maritime transport channels safe and unblocked.This paper is based on the theory of sea power, the theory of government capacity, the theory of system security and relevant research literatures. Drawing lessons from the international mature evaluation system, the factors of public security are internalized into two dimensions of vulnerability and capacity. And, the comprehensive evaluation framework is established by the causality of each risk factors. Upon the framework, the theory of system dynamics and VENSIM software are applied to construct an evaluation model for public security system of maritime transport channel. Eventually, through relevant statistical data collecting, processing and analyzing, expert interviews, questionnaires and scoring methods, this paper chooses South China Sea and its adjacent sea area as a typical case to do the simulation calculation, and analyze the level and trend of public security, so as to provide decision support for improving the public security management capability in this sea area.