| The climate issue is one of the major challenges that human beings need to overcome urgently.Under this requirement,many countries have announced "carbon neutrality" commitments and implemented energy structure adjustment strategies.Photovoltaic power generation,as one of the main new energy sources to replace thermal power generation,has developed rapidly in recent years with the advancement of carbon reduction actions,and the market demand for photovoltaic products is also increasing.The rapid growth of the performance of photovoltaic module manufacturing enterprises has attracted the flow of capital to the industry,making major enterprises participate in the wave of production expansion,and the competition within the industry has presented a new situation.However,at present,some investors have not fully understood the various risks of the future development of photovoltaic manufacturing enterprises,and the management only pays attention to the stock price and does not pay attention to the management of enterprise value.Therefore,in this context,it is particularly important to use the professional knowledge of asset evaluation to reasonably evaluate the intrinsic value of photovoltaic manufacturing enterprises,and to give investors and managers a reference for decision-making.Firstly,through background and literature research,this paper expounds the theoretical basis of thesis writing,and determines that the research object is photovoltaic manufacturing enterprises;secondly,through the analysis of the external environment of enterprises,to understand the uncertain factors faced by photovoltaic manufacturing enterprises in the development process,to pave the way for subsequent research;Thirdly,after summarizing the characteristics of the enterprise,according to the applicable conditions of different evaluation methods,the income method is determined as the best evaluation method;then,the insufficiency of the income method in the value evaluation of photovoltaic manufacturing enterprises is analyzed,that is,it cannot reflect the problems faced by the development of enterprises.Uncertain factors and the subjectivity of income forecasting,and improve these shortcomings through scenario analysis and Monte Carlo simulation.Value assessment,and the valuation results are compared with the traditional income method valuation results,brokerage valuation results and corporate market value to verify the applicability and rationality of the improved income method.According to the research of this paper,the current photovoltaic manufacturing enterprises are facing four uncertain factors: the implementation of industrial policies,the international trade environment,market competition,and price fluctuations in the supply chain.These factors can be classified into discrete risk factors and continuous risks according to risk characteristics.The two types of factors are applicable to the evaluation of scenario analysis method and Monte Carlo simulation method respectively.The improved income method through the two new methods can reflect the uncertain factors affecting the value of photovoltaic manufacturing enterprises and can output the valuation in the form of interval.As a result,it is more informative.In addition,according to the results of the case study,the improved income method can better achieve the research purpose.For investors,although the valuation result of the improved income method on the evaluation base date is higher than the market value of the enterprise,it predicts the future market value change trend of the enterprise to a certain extent;The future development area is divided into different scenarios,and the probability of occurrence of each scenario is determined through historical financial data analysis,research report rating method,expert scoring method and cross-influencing factor analysis method,which helps enterprise managers to clearly understand the future development of the enterprise various possible conditions and make reasonable business decisions. |
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