Research On Economic Benefit Of Distributed Photovoltaic Power Generation In The Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region

Distributed photovoltaic(DPV)power generation is a key emerging industry in China,because it has the characteristics of small investment amount,convenient installation and maintenance,and high safety and reliability.In order to encourage the development of the photovoltaic industry,Chinese government has formulated the corresponding subsidy standards for it,however,the quota subsidy standard of DPV power generation has been continuously declined since 2017.In 2021,China will cancel the quota subsidy standard for new photovoltaic power projects,which brings great challenges to the scale development of DPV.In this context,analyze the economic benefits of installing DPV for different users,determine the operation mode when users obtain the optimal economic benefits and explore the factors of DPV projects economic benefits is very important for "county photovoltaic" work.It is of great practical significance to promote the promotion and application of DPV power generation and the realization of the "double-carbon" goal.This paper takes the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei DPV power generation as the research object,and uses the cost-benefit model based on financial indicators and the investment evaluation model based on real option to analyze the economic benefits of DPV projects under "the full internet mode" and "the self-use and residual internet mode".Firstly,this paper applies NPV(net current value),dynamic investment payback period and IRR(internal rate of return)to calculate the economic benefits of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei residents and industrial and commercial users in different operation mode from 2017 to 2021,and to analyze the impact of the subsidy decline until cancellation on the economic benefits of the projects,and conduct a sensitivity analysis on the influencing factors leading to the difference in the economic benefits of DPV projects between the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region.Secondly,under the condition of uncertain feed-in electricity price and power generation cost,this paper uses the real option method to construct the value evaluation model of DPV projects,and analyzes the optimal investment decision behavior of DPV projects in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region.The results show that:the results of these two methods are consistent and robust.With the reduction and cancellation of the quota subsidy standard,although the DPV projects can obtain a certain investment income,but the economic benefits of the project continue to decline,and the profit margins are decreasing year by year.The optimal operation mode of DPV power generation is the self-use and residual internet mode.The optimal investment decision behavior of residents and industrial and commercial users is to adopt immediate investment.Among the three regions of Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei,the DPV projects in Beijing have the best economic benefits,and the key factors affecting the economic benefits difference of the three regional projects are the annual power generation and sales electricity price.Finally,countermeasures and suggestions are put forward to promote the high-quality development of photovoltaic power generation industry from the construction of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei DPV power generation regional system and the expansion of DPV financing channels.The research results of this paper provides strong theoretical support for different users to choose the optimal operation mode of DPV power generation,and has important reference value for the government to formulate the guidance policy of "whole county photovoltaic".