Research On Spatial Correlation Effect And Collaborative Management Of "Water-Energy-Carbon" In Hebei Province

Hebei Province,as an important part of the Beijing Tianjin Hebei economic circle,is the core area of economic development in northern China.At present,the shortage of water resources and energy in Hebei Province has gradually become one of the important bottlenecks restricting its sustainable development.At the same time,with the substantial increase in the total amount of carbon dioxide emissions,on the basis of achieving the goal of carbon peak in 2030,the pressure of carbon emission reduction in Hebei Province is also growing.Therefore,in order to realize the sustainable development of urban economy in Hebei Province,it is very necessary to explore the law of coordinated development of water resources,energy and carbon emissions in Hebei Province,evaluate the spatial correlation effect of "water-energy-carbon",and on this basis,strengthen the coordinated management of "water-energy-carbon" in Hebei Province.This paper selects the sample data of 11 cities in Hebei Province from 2010 to 2020.Firstly,according to the spatial statistical model and spatial econometrics principle,the spatial statistical Moran index is used to test the spatial correlation of water resource use,energy consumption and carbon emissions,and the spatial Dubin model is used to study the driving factors of the three from the perspective of space.The results show that the improvement of industrial structure and technology level has an inhibitory effect on water resource use and energy consumption,The total population,urbanization rate,economic development level,energy consumption intensity and energy consumption structure have a positive role in promoting carbon emissions.And on this basis,based on the input-output model,using the multi-objective dynamic planning method,the use of water resources,energy consumption,carbon dioxide emissions and economic development in Hebei Province in 2018-2030 will be dynamically simulated with 2017 as the base period.Based on different policy objectives and strategies,a total of five different scenarios will be set,and the best scenario will be selected by comparing the simulation results under different scenarios,Analyze the environmental and economic impact of Hebei Province under the optimal scenario to provide a basis for the coordinated management of "water energy carbon" in various regions of Hebei Province,and promote the sustainable development of regional economy.Under the optimal scenario,the average annual economic growth rate of Hebei Province from 2017 to 2030 is 6.51%,and the three industrial structure adjustments are 5:27:68.The water resource utilization intensity of Hebei Province in 2030 is 49.72%less than that in 2017;Energy consumption intensity decreased by 47.80%;The carbon emission intensity was reduced by 43.78%.Under the condition that the economy maintains medium to high speed growth,the goals of the 1h Five Year Plan and the long-term goals of 2035 can be achieved.