Research On The Multi-objective Synergetic Management Strategy Of China's Energy-watereconomy Based On Driving Factors And Critical Sectors

Energy and water are important resources and increasingly scarce,which have become constraints for China's economic sustainable development.This study aims to identify the driving factors and critical sectors for energy-water-economy nexus,and explore how to manage them integratedly in order to achieve the sustainable development.The main works and innovative findings are as follows:(1)A framework for decomposing driving factors of energy-water-economy nexus is proposed,which expands the single-index factor decomposition model to a dual-index factor decomposition model.The changes in energy intensity and water intensity are attributed to a set of driving factors,including industrial structure effect,production technology effect,population carrying effect,population structure effect,and lifestyle effect.The results show that production technology effect and industrial structure effect are the main driving factors for energy saving and water saving.It should be noted that industrial structure effect has the opposite effect on energy intensity and water intensity,resulting in conflicts between energy saving and water saving goals.Therefore,effective industrial structure adjustment policies need to fully consider the trade-offs between different objectives.(2)A sectoral energy-water-economy nexus model is constructed to measure the total changes in energy consumption,water use,and economic value added that are induced by the development of one sector.Two novel indicators named total energy intensity and total water intensity are proposed to assess energy-water-economy nexus of one sector.The four-quadrant classification method is used to divide all sectors into four types.The results show that five sectors,including Equipment manufacturing,Gas production and supply,Construction,Wholesale,retail,accommodation and catering,and Other services,have low total energy intensity and low total water intensity.They create per unit of added value using less energy and less water,which can be identified as key sectors of low-energy and low-water intensity that should be given priority in development.(3)A multi-objective synergetic management model of energy-water-economy is developed,with 2017 as the base year,to dynamically simulate the development of energy,water and economy under different nine policy scenarios from 2018 to 2030.The results show that if the if the economy maintains an annual growth rate of 6.5%,energy consumption and water use in 2030 will exceed the planned targets by 57.7% and 83.6%,respectively.If the energy consumption and water use are controlled,the cumulative GDP will decrease by 29.4%.Through the adjustment of industrial structure,the cumulative GDP will only decreased by 9.2%.It indicates that industrial structure adjustment has greater potential for energy saving and water saving.Specifically,the output of Other service,Wholesale,retail,accommodation and catering,Equipment manufacturing,Construction have increased significantly,accounting for 84% of the total increased output.In addition,if production technology improvement strategies are conducted,the cumulative GDP will increase by 3.4% and the economic growth rate will remain above 6%.This means that by adopting effective strategies,the three goals of energy,water and economy can be achieved simultaneously.