Research On The Optimal Selection Of Railway Connection Scheme Based On Cumulative Prospect Theory

Although historic achievements have been made in the construction of China’s comprehensive transport system,the problem of unbalanced and inadequate development is still prominent.There are obvious weaknesses in railways in key city clusters and urban areas,especially in the central and western regions.At present,China’s transportation industry has entered a period of improving the facilities network and making up for shortcomings precisely.As the backbone of comprehensive transportation system and an important means of transportation,railway has also entered the stage of construction and improvement of modern railway network.In the process of improving and optimizing the railway network,it will inevitably involve the integration of railway lines.The determination of the integration scheme is an important problem to be solved in the process of railway line design,which is closely related to a series of major problems such as engineering investment,transportation efficiency,and road network planning.Therefore,it is very important to determine a reasonable integration scheme.However,the optimization of integration scheme is an uncertain multi-attribute decision-making problem,and there are many uncertainties in the decision-making process.Therefore,based on the cumulative prospect theory,this paper will study the optimization problem of railway integration schemes,and strive to build a reasonable and feasible optimization model,so as to provide a certain reference for the optimization of similar schemes.Firstly,the applicability of cumulative prospect theory in railway integration scheme optimization is studied.It mainly studies the concept of uncertain multi-attribute decision-making problem and commonly used multi-attribute decision-making methods,as well as the basic principles and main contents of cumulative prospect theory.Then,the uncertainty in the selection of the railway connection scheme is analyzed,and the applicability of the cumulative prospect theory in the selection of the railway connection scheme is discussed.Then,the evaluation index system and weight determination method of railway integration scheme are studied.According to the established principle of index system construction,the optimal evaluation index system is constructed from four aspects of project feasibility,economy,environmental impact,social and road network impact by object decomposition method.The trapezoidal fuzzy analytic hierarchy process and improved entropy weight method are used to determine the subjective and objective weights of quantitative indexes in criterion layer and index layer,and the combined weights are given by game theory.Secondly,the optimal model of railway connection scheme based on cumulative prospect theory is constructed.Considering the quantification of qualitative indicators,the linguistic evaluation value of qualitative indicators is converted into cloud model or intuitive linguistic number,and two optimization models are established by combining the cumulative prospect theory.The calculation method of the objective weight of qualitative indicators is determined,and the sensitivity formula is defined to compare the decision effect of the two models.Finally,the application research of the model is carried out by taking the connection plan of two new railways in the southwest as an engineering example.The feasibility of the optimal model is tested and the decision effects of the two models are compared.It can provide some reference for the optimization of similar schemes.