Research On Hubei Province Green Shipping Development Strategy Based On SD Model

Shipping industry is an important part of my country’s comprehensive transportation system,an important way for my country to realize international trade of import and export,and a key industry for the vigorous development of regional economy.With the implementation of national strategies such as"Yangtze River Economic Belt","Transportation Power","Dual Circulation",and"Dual Carbon",Hubei’s shipping industry will shoulder more important development responsibilities,and it is necessary to focus on solving the contradiction between the level of shipping economic and social development and the carrying capacity of resources and environment,and gradually take the road of green shipping development.Under this background,this paper constructs the evaluation model and system dynamics model of green shipping development in Hubei Province,puts forward the development strategy of green shipping,and points out the direction for the development of green shipping in Hubei Province.Firstly,on the basis of clarifying the connotation and elements of green shipping,this paper makes a detailed analysis of the status quo and existing problems of green shipping in Hubei Province.Secondly,this paper clarifies the key influencing factors of the green development of shipping,and establishes an evaluation model for the development level of green shipping in Hubei Province.The PCA solution results show that the development level of green shipping in Hubei Province has gradually increased from-0.981 in 2011 to 1.12 in 2020.Thirdly,the paper builds the SD model of green shipping development based on the analysis of influencing factors,analyzes the causal relationship between shipping and the economic,energy,and environmental subsystems,draws a system flow diagram,and uses GM（1,1）,multiple regression,entropy value method,etc.to determine the parameters.Finally,the Vensim software is used to carry out single or combined strategy simulation by changing the industry proportion,LNG ship proportion,unit energy consumption of fuel tankers,green investment coefficient,development policy environment and other parameters.The results show that:1)The forecast result of the development level of green shipping in2021-2025 has increased from 1.95 to 2.31,but the reduction of CO₂ is far less than the amount of CO₂ emissions,and the amount of CO₂ pollution is still increasing,indicating that measures are urgently needed to promote the development of green shipping.2)Each single strategy can promote the development of green shipping,and the green shipping development effect of improving governance efficiency,improving green technology and improving the environment for green shipping development is higher than optimizing industrial structure,increasing green shipping investment and adjusting energy structure.3)Under the combination strategy,the green development level of Hubei Province in 2025 will be 2.47,with an increase rate of 7.16%,an increase of 1.81 percentage points over the increase rate under a single strategy.The energy saving rate and carbon reduction rate increased by 7 percentage points and 6.56percentage points respectively compared with the highest rate of change under a single strategy,indicating that the development of green shipping is more effective when all government departments work together and take multiple measures.At the same time,strategies such as developing multimodal transport,adjusting energy structure,improving governance efficiency,and upgrading green technologies are proposed from the perspectives of structural adjustment,technology upgrade,and management optimization.This paper uses principal component analysis and system dynamics to study the influencing factors,development level and influencing mechanism of green shipping development in Hubei Province from a quantitative perspective.It not only enriches and expands the research ideas and theoretical systems in the field of green shipping research,but also provides a certain theoretical basis and guidance for the government to formulate green shipping development policies and plans,which is of great significance.