Research On The Interactive Development Between Inland River Shipping And Economy In Hubei Province

Hubei province is located in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River,which has the location advantage of connecting the east with the west,linking the north to the south,also being rich in water resource.In recent years,the economy of Hubei province is developing rapidly,and shipping supply capacity and shipping demand are also increasing,with the implementation of a series of major strategies such as Yangtze River economic belt,the middle reaches of the Yangtze River city group,accelerating the development of inland water transport,etc,which put forward higher requirements for inland river shipping and economic interaction development in Hubei province.But the degree of interactive development between them is uncertain and that will be bad to formulate the policy of interactive development.Under this background,this paper makes a systematic study on the interactive development of inland river shipping and economy in Hubei province,and makes the level of interaction between them clear.Firstly,the paper reviews the current situation of inland river shipping,introduces economic development in Hubei province,and summarizes problems of inland river shipping and the trend of economic development in Hubei province.Secondly,GDP and water freight volume index are used to characterize the development of economy and inland river shipping.And the unit root test,cointegration test,Grainger causality test and other methods are used to analyze the index sequence.The results show that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between inland river shipping and economic development in Hubei province,both of which are Grainger’s reason of each other and the economic development is more significant.Then,the paper systematically analyzes the interaction mechanism of inland river shipping and economy in Hubei province,and builds the system dynamics model for simulation.The following conclusions are obtained:1)GDP continues to grow rapidly in Hubei province and is expected to reach 4 trillion and 370 billion yuan in 2020;2)the gap between inland river shipping demand and supply of Hubei province has narrowed gradually since 12 th Five-Year in late.Shipping supply and demand presents a brief dynamic balance until about 2020;3)Berth operation ability,ship Channel supply capacity and transport capacity are increased gradually.And the channel supply capacity may become a mitigating factor of inland shipping supply growth to a certain extent about in 2020,and the factor will restricts the ability of port berth operation and the ability of ship transportation;4)Increasing Fixed assets investment in shipping industry properly and improving shipping soft power can help to promote the economic growth of Hubei province.And in the long run,improving shipping soft power is more significant to promote the interactive development between Inland shipping and economy.Finally,the paper puts forward some suggestions to promote the benign development of inland shipping and economy of Hubei province from three aspects: the development of shipping elements,the fixed assets investment of shipping industry and the soft power of shipping.This paper defines the current situation of the interactive development between inland river shipping and economy of Hubei province,and systematically expounds the mechanism of interactive development between them,and simulated the development process of the interaction between them.The research results can provide theoretical support and reference for government departments to formulate policies to promote the interactive development of inland river shipping and economy in Hubei province.