| The comprehensive electric vehicle is the current development trend under the‘Chinese Double-Carbon Policy’ strategy goal.In recent years,the ‘Dual-Credit Policy’has continuously raised the requirement of points proportion,accelerating the electrification transformation of automobile enterprises.Chinese old automobile enterprises are in the transformation and upgrading stage from the production of traditional fuel vehicles to the production of new energy vehicles.The influx of new energy vehicles into the market as emerging products has caused two impacts: on the one hand,the market has launched a new game behavior around traditional fuel vehicles and new energy vehicles,which prompts automobile enterprises to think about the issue of automobile output decision-making from a new perspective;On the other hand,the traditional fuel vehicle market has been broken the original long-term stable competition state,how to restore the long-term stability of the market has aroused the attention of the industry decision makers.Due to the interactivity and adaptability of the old automobile enterprises in the early stage of transformation,the output decision of the automobile enterprises in transformation under the Dual-Credit Policy is complicated,and it is difficult to use common methods to analyze and describe this problem comprehensively and systematically.Therefore,this study uses complex dynamics method to explore the dynamic evolution law of output decision-making of duopoly automobile enterprises that produce both traditional fuel vehicles and new energy vehicles under the dual-integral policy,with the purpose of helping decision-makers of transforming automobile enterprises to correctly formulate effective market strategies and control measures,clarify the decision-making behavior and mutual influence of automobile enterprises in the new market structure,and predict the development trend of enterprises.Firstly,the dynamic evolutionary Cournot game model of output decision of duopoly automobile enterprises under the ‘Dual-Credit Policy’ based on the bounded rationality is constructed,the equilibrium point is calculated and the stability of the equilibrium point is analyzed.The dynamic evolution of the system is numerically simulated and the dynamic characteristics of the model are analyzed,and the dynamic evolution trend of the automobile market under the ‘Dual-Credit Policy’ is obtained.Then,three economic indexes of evaluating the performance of automobile enterprises,namely cumulative profit,cumulative sales income and average sales volume,are proposed,and these three indexes are used to evaluate the chaotic performance of dynamic system.Then,according to the evaluation results,the adaptive proportional control method and threshold control method are selected to control the enterprises with poor performance.The main conclusions are as follows:(1)Based on the bounded rationality of automobile enterprises,the dynamic evolutionary game model of output decision of duopoly automobile enterprises is constructed.It is found that when the output adjustment speed of traditional fuel vehicles and new energy vehicles both take values in the stable region,enterprises can reach a stable state in the market competition.With the increase of the output adjustment speed,the system changes from equilibrium state to period-doubling bifurcation,Nash point changes from stable to unstable,and the output and profit of the system show complex behavior.And you end up in chaos.(2)Using cumulative profit,cumulative sales revenue and average sales volume to influence initial production and the speed of production adjustment on enterprise performance,the research finds that: When the production adjustment rate is taken to different values in the stability domain of equilibrium point,the convergence rate of initial production to Nash equilibrium point is not much different.Under different evaluation indexes,the performance of dynamic evolutionary game model in periodic state and chaotic state is not very consistent.In general,it is harmful for the model to enter chaotic state through period-doubling bifurcation,and enterprises should take measures.(3)The adaptive proportional control method is used to control the chaos of the model.When the cumulative profit and cumulative sales revenue of an enterprise in a certain period decline compared with the equilibrium state,the decision-maker can take the symbol of cumulative profit as the signal to adjust the output,and the cumulative profit is regular to lower the planned output,or otherwise to increase the planned output.When the threshold control method is used to control the chaotic state of the system,the enterprise decision maker can effectively suppress the chaos of the model by adding an upper limit and/or lower limit to the output according to the historical data and experience.Both of the two chaos control methods can improve the enterprise performance to a certain extent,but there are differences in the control effect and applicable conditions.In practice,decision makers need to use appropriate chaos control methods according to the evolution period and market environment of the model. |
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