Study On Duration Risk Management Of DL110kV Substation Project

At present,China’s social economy is in a stage of rapid development,with the development and change of economic strength,as well as the rise of today’s emerging economies,the power industry has become one of the main driving forces for social and economic development.Although major progress has been made in the construction of power transmission and transformation projects,with the growing high demand for power grid engineering construction,problems in the management of the project are also emerging in an endless stream,and there are still deficiencies and defects in the construction management system,mode and method of power transmission and transformation projects.From the perspective of social and economic development,the construction of power transmission and transformation projects has played a major role in promoting local development.However,with the complex and changeable external environment of the construction of power transmission and transformation projects,and the characteristics of long construction time,high cost and technical difficulty,under the influence of construction factors such as planning,construction and supervision,as well as objective factors such as politics,economy and nature,the uncertainty of multiple interference factors in the construction of power transmission and transformation projects has increased,resulting in many risks.It is of great significance to select appropriate index systems in the risk assessment and management of power transmission and transformation project construction projects.This paper mainly studies the risk management of the construction period of the DL110 k V substation project.By combining with the actual situation of the project,this paper uses the Delphi method to identify,analyze and sort out the many risks in this project.The identified risks can be divided into 5 categories: technical risks,management risks,economic risks,security risks,and environmental risks.At the same time,the risk evaluation model of the construction period of the DL110 k V substation project is constructed by the analytic hierarchy method,and the fuzzy analysis method is used in the assessment of the risk level.In addition,based on the historical data of the construction period of the DL110 k V substation project,the grey correlation analysis method was used to analyze the risk sensitivity of the DL110 k V substation project.By calculating the sensitivity of risk factors,the conclusion is drawn by the product of the loss of risk production,the average confidence value corresponding to the risk factor,and the gray correlation degree.The cumulative contribution rate of the first eight risk factors obtained by ranking the risk factors of the DL110 k V substation project according to sensitivity reached 90%,so these 8items were taken as the main objects of risk management in this project.Finally,according to the risk assessment of the DL110 k V substation project and its sensitivity analysis,targeted improvement methods and measures are proposed for risk management.The research in this paper has strong practical significance for the risk management of the construction period of the DL110 k V substation project,and at the same time lays a foundation for the introduction and practice of modern project management theory in the management of power transmission and transformation projects in China.