| Under the interactive evolution of specialized economy and transaction costs,the process of economic development is spatially manifested as non-equilibrium characteristics,and the increasingly significant agglomeration phenomenon of industries centered on cities is one of the main manifestations of this non-equilibrium feature.The opening of the China Railway Express is a symbolic achievement of the interconnection of transportation infrastructure construction in countries along the route under the "Belt and Road" initiative.It has effectively promoted the development of China’s economy,evaluated and analyzed the law of urban industrial agglomeration.On the one hand,it can verify the empirical consistency of the economic development principle of urban industrial agglomeration based on the latest economic experience of the "Belt and Road",and on the other hand,it can provide a certain theoretical basis for relevant policies.Therefore,the impact of the opening of the China Railway Express on urban industrial agglomeration is of great theoretical and practical significance.Based on the current research status at home and abroad,based on the theories of new economic geography,unbalanced development,division of labor and transaction costs,this thesis puts forward a research hypothesis that affects urban industrial agglomeration after the opening of the China Railway Express.Theoretical analysis shows that the opening of the China Railway Express not only meets the growing demand for cargo transportation between the Chinese and European continents,but also attracts relevant production factors and enterprises to gather in node cities along the route,and reduces the transaction costs of enterprises by promoting the free flow of capital,talents,technology and other factors,realizes the optimal allocation of factor resources,and ultimately affects urban industrial agglomeration.Based on the theoretical analysis,this thesis takes the opening of the China Railway Express as a quasi-natural experiment,based on the urban panel data of 286 cities and above in China from 2003 to 2019,and uses the multi-period Difference-in-Differences method to empirically analyze the impact effect of the China Railway Express on the agglomeration of urban manufacturing,producer services and biased industries,and empirically tests the four influence mechanisms of labor mobility,informatization level,scientific and technological innovation level and industrial structure upgrading according to the mediation effect analysis method.The study found:(1)Compared with the cities that have not opened the China Railway Express,the opening of the China Railway Express has significantly promoted the agglomeration of manufacturing industries and inhibited the agglomeration of producer services in the cities that have opened.The results of the impact on biased industrial agglomeration show that the opening of the China Railway Express will produce a policy orientation of "emphasizing manufacturing and neglecting service" for urban industrial agglomeration.On the premise of satisfying the parallel trend test,the above conclusions are still significantly valid after a series of robustness tests,such as placebo test,changing treatment group,PSM+DID estimation,instrumental variable regression,DID estimation at a single time point,replacing explained variables,and excluding extreme values,etc.(2)After the opening of the China Railway Express,it will have a significant impact on the agglomeration of manufacturing industries,producer services and biased industries in provinces with high policy support,northern cities,large cities,and eastern regions,which are located in the advantageous areas of sea transportation.At the same time,the marginal promotion effect of the opening of the China Railway Express on the urban manufacturing agglomeration will increase with the increase of the manufacturing location entropy.However,the impact on the agglomeration of urban producer service industry and biased industries will decrease with the increase of the location entropy of producer services and the agglomeration of biased industries.(3)After the opening of the China Railway Express,it can affect the agglomeration of urban manufacturing,producer services and biased industries through labor mobility,informatization level and industrial structure upgrading.The level of scientific and technological innovation can only play a partial mediating effect in the process of influencing urban manufacturing agglomeration and biased industrial agglomeration after the opening of the China Railway Express.Combined with the research conclusions of this thesis and the development trend of China Railway Express,countermeasures and suggestions are put forward from the following three perspectives: First,seize strategic opportunities to promote industrial agglomeration;Second,optimize the route layout and improve the government regulations;Third,improve infrastructure and clarify market positioning. |
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