Research On Export Potential Of Agricultural Machinery Products From China To "One Belt And One Road"

The development of agricultural machinery industry is closely related to agricultural modernization.It has an important impact on the national economy.At present,the agricultural machinery industry has problems such as low automation,overcapacity of traditional agricultural machinery products,single product structure and so on.There is still a large gap between China’s agricultural machinery products and those of developed countries.At the same time,the relevant national policies are conducive to the agricultural machinery industry,which also provides strong support for the import and export trade of agricultural machinery products.Under the situation of coexistence of opportunities and challenges,this paper analyzes the constraints affecting the export of agricultural machinery products,calculates the export efficiency of agricultural machinery products of China and countries along the "the Belt and Road",differentiates the trade potential of countries with the dependence on product imports,and puts forward feasible suggestions and countermeasures for this.This has provided some guidance for the future country selection of export products and the structural adjustment of agricultural machinery products production,It is also conducive to better promoting trade cooperation and development with countries along the "the Belt and Road".On the basis of combing relevant domestic and foreign literature,this paper analyzes the current situation and problems of China’s export of agricultural machinery products by empirical analysis,comparative research and other methods,according to the comparative advantage theory,factor endowment theory,national competitive advantage theory,regional economic integration theory and Institutional economics theory.In the empirical analysis,firstly,the stochastic frontier gravity model is used to explore the factors that affect China’s export of agricultural machinery products to countries along the "the Belt and Road",and on this basis,the export trade efficiency and trade expansion space are measured.The results show that China’s export efficiency of agricultural machinery products is increasing.From the perspective of space,China’s export efficiency to countries in Europe,Oceania and South America is relatively high.From the perspective of time,China has mainly increased its exports of agricultural machinery products to Africa,Asia and Europe.Secondly,the import display comparative disadvantage index is used to measure the dependence of importing countries on agricultural machinery products.It is found that most countries along the "the Belt and Road" are moderately dependent or above.Among them,South America has the highest average dependence on imports of products,while Asia and North America have relatively low dependence on agricultural machinery products.Finally,the Boston Matrix is used to predict the trade potential of China’s agricultural machinery products to different countries along the "the Belt and Road".The results show that Singapore is in the iceberg region,and other countries are in the expansion and saturation regions.China can focus on increasing the export of agricultural machinery products to countries in the expansion zone.With the continuous implementation of the "the Belt and Road" initiative,China’s export of agricultural machinery products still has broad trade prospects.Finally,the paper puts forward suggestions to broaden the prospects of export trade of agricultural machinery products,including deepening trade cooperation with countries along the "the Belt and Road",realizing product export differentiation and promoting the upgrading and innovation of agricultural machinery products.