Assessment And Simulation Of Public Traffic Carrying Capacity In Lanzhou

With the continuous rapid social and economic development,it leads to the emergence of the problem of incoordination and imbalance between urban population demand and social and economic development.For example,the urban traffic structure has changed significantly:the proportion of motorized trips is rapidly increasing and the proportion of non-motorized trips is continuously decreasing.Traffic congestion in urban centers is becoming increasingly serious,which will eventually lead to increasing pressure on urban environmental pollution and energy consumption.In order to alleviate the impact of such phenomena,several cities have been implementing public traffication priority development strategies and piloting the creation of public traffication cities.Therefore,the priority development of public traffic is effective,and it is urgent to scientifically measure the development of public traffic and evaluate the effectiveness of the construction of public traffic cities.As a comprehensive indicator to measure the sustainable development of public traffication,the analysis of the public traffication carrying capacity is important to measure the sustainable development of public traffication and should be studied.The main research contents of this paper are as follows:(1)Firstly,this paper defines the concept of public traffication carrying capacity by introducing the content and characteristics of urban public traffication carrying capacity.The characteristics of sustainable development theory and complex system theory are explained,and the internal relationship of public traffication carrying capacity is analyzed by integrating DPSIR-EES evaluation index system,and game theory combination assignment method and fuzzy object element evaluation method.Based on the above,the components of system dynamics and modeling steps are summarized,so as to provide systematic theoretical support for this paper.(2)Secondly,this paper improves the existing DPSIR evaluation index system based on the traffic carrying capacity research theory.By integrating the DPSIR-EES evaluation system,the public traffic carrying capacity evaluation index system is constructed.Based on this evaluation index system,the game theory combination weighting method is used to assign the load carrying capacity evaluation indexes and combine the fuzzy element theory model to dynamically evaluate the public traffic load carrying capacity of Lanzhou from 2013 to 2021.The results show that the public traffic carrying capacity of Lanzhou is at the primary warning stage and the carrying capacity level is on an upward trend to provide reference indicators for the establishment of the public traffic carrying capacity DPSIR-EES-SD model later.(3)Finally,this paper introduces the system dynamics and simulates the public traffic carrying capacity level of Lanzhou under the future multiple development scenarios by establishing the DPSIR-EES-SD model of the public traffic carrying capacity of Lanzhou.The causal loop diagram and system flow diagram are constructed by sorting out the internal operation mechanism of the public traffic carrying capacity system.Further,the model table function integration algorithm(SD-GM)is designed with the guidance of system dynamics model and gray system GM(2,1)theory.The paper designs four development scenarios of public traffic carrying capacity of Lanzhou and conducts simulations.The results show that under the status quo maintenance development scenario,the public traffic carrying capacity level of Lanzhou will fluctuate between light warning and moderate warning,the supply-side development and environmental protection development scenarios will improve the carrying capacity level,and the comprehensive development scenario will significantly improve the carrying capacity level.This method guides the direction and mode of sustainable development and public traffic system construction in Lanzhou in the future,and provides a development model for other cities in the western Yellow River Basin to create green,lowcarbon and sustainable cities.