Study On Safty Carrying Capacity And Sustain Development Of Air Traffic Management Unit

Under the multiple pressures of rapid growth flight quantities, on-schedule rate of flights and the limited airspace, air traffic management unit (ATM) of civil aviation is facing increasing challenges, which has brought safety risks to the civil aviation industry. It is of great importance for define the concept of "Safety Carrying Capacity" and its influence factors, as well as thorough understanding of the system dynamics (SD) between Safety Carrying Capacity and the development of ATM, which provided support for risk decision. Currently, airspace capacity assessment and environmental carrying capacity are most used for maximizing the utilization of civil aviation airspace. However, analysis results of this thesis show that neither airspace capacity assessment nor environmental carrying capacity is the best method; therefore, we define the concept of "Safety Carrying Capacity". Based on system analysis of the ATM, literature review and questionnaire survey, structural equation model (SEM) is used for indentifying the relationship, acting path and connected factors between the influence factors of the ATM capacity. On this basis, the system dynamics between the Safety Carrying Capacity of ATM and the development of ATM is studied, and the corresponding system dynamics models are established and simulated. The main conclusions and research results are listed as below.(1) Definition of the Safety Carrying Capacity of ATM. The influence factors for ATM’s Safety Carrying Capacity and their mechanisms are confirmed. The model among Safety Carrying Capacity, elements of the development potential and static capability is established, and is verified by SME.(2) The development potential of ATM’s Safety Carrying Capacity has significant positive effect on the static capability. As for the static capability, the control ability has the most powerful influence, followed with the communication navigation surveillance (CNS), aviation meteorological service (AMS) and aeronautical information service (AIS), at the meantime, the CNS has positive influence on AMS the AIS. Among all the interaction relationships between the dimensionalities of development potential, safety culture, organizational learning and the risk management ability show their significantly effects, while the environmental awareness and the assets technical ability have weak influences.(3) The casual relationship and the feedback mechanism of factors, i.e. ATM’s Safety Carrying Capacity, safety goal, safety investment, safety and service conditions, flight quantities and civil aviation approval policy. The system dynamic model between ATM’s Safety Carrying Capacity and safety development is established.(4) The variations tendencies of flight quantity, incident rate and delay rate of flights under different policies of approve are simulated. The influence law and trend of safety goal, safety investment on ATM’s Safety Carrying Capacity, control, CNS, AMS and AIS. Policy suggestions for both situations are proposed.(5) Three developing modes including top speed, traditional and harmonious are simulated for the variation tendencies on flight quantity, incident rate and delay rate of flights. Compared to the other modes, the growth rate of flight quantity increases gradually with time, incident rate remains at a low level and the delay rate is basic stable under the harmonious mode, which is positive and of sustainable development.