| With the continuous advancement of electricity marketization,power grid enterprises have entered a critical period of high-quality development.The decision-making of power grid investment is an important link in determining the future development of enterprises.Reasonable arrangement of investment can not only obtain certain benefits to promote national economic growth,but also promote industrial development and energy green transformation.In the process of continuous economic development,electricity consumption continues to grow,and electricity demand continues to rise.In the process of investment and construction,power grid enterprises need to meet the growing load demand within their own investment capacity limitations.Against the backdrop of the dual carbon target,the high proportion of new energy connected to the power grid poses a serious challenge to the stability of the power grid.Demand response is an important technical means to maintain the balance of power and electricity.Therefore,in the process of power grid investment decision-making,it is necessary to consider demand side response resources based on load forecasting and formulate reasonable investment strategies.The main research work of this paper is as follows:firstly,the current status of domestic and international research on demand response,electricity demand forecasting,investment capacity measurement and grid investment optimization is sorted out,the relevant theories of grid investment are analyzed,and the model methods for grid investment forecasting and optimization are introduced.Secondly,the research on power demand forecasting of power grid enterprises is carried out,taking into account various factors such as economic development,social development and power supply,constructing an indicator system affecting power load and using the bivariate correlation coefficient method to screen key influencing factors;on this basis,a particle swarm optimization convolutional neural network forecasting method is used to carry out empirical analysis to obtain future power demand.Then,the research on investment capacity of power grid enterprises was carried out.The indicator system of investment capacity influencing factors was constructed from various perspectives such as enterprise development,financial situation and market environment,then the grey correlation method was used to calculate the correlation between investment capacity and related indicators,and the factor with the highest correlation was selected as the input of the prediction model according to the calculation results,and a particle swarm optimization long and short term memory neural network prediction model was established.The empirical analysis is carried out to forecast future investment capacity.Finally,considering the different response situations of demand-side resources,different response scenarios are simulated;an optimization model is established with the comprehensive benefits of economic,social,security and environmental aspects of the grid enterprise as the target,and power demand,investment capacity,grid reliability,enterprise resources and project portfolio constraints as the constraints;the improved harmony search optimization algorithm is invoked by MATLAB to solve the problem,thereby obtaining power grid investment project portfolio plans under various demand response scenarios.Based on the analysis of the above model,relevant countermeasures are proposed to provide a basis for the investment decision of power grid enterprises.Based on the research on power demand forecasting and investment capacity measurement of power grid enterprises,this paper considers future demand-side response resources,optimizes grid investment on a scientific basis,selects and identifies suitable grid construction projects,effectively maximizes the comprehensive benefits of power grid enterprises,ensures return on investment and maintains the vitality of power grid enterprises.Reasonable grid investment decisions can reduce blindness and duplication in investment,provide sustainable development,implement the concept of precision investment and promote high-quality development of the grid. |
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