Research On Risk Management In BRT Planning And Design Stage

As a public transport system with low cost,high traffic volume and short construction cycle,BRT is favored by small and medium-sized cities.It can not only alleviate the problem of urban congestion,but also drive land appreciation and accelerate urban economic development through Tod.At the same time,BRT is a comprehensive system project,which has the characteristics of large project scale,high project investment,various technical disciplines and high project risk.The planning and design stage often determines the landing effect of the project.In addition to the planning and design itself,fund raising,policy support,environmental impact and management quality are all important factors affecting BRT projects in the planning and design stage.This paper analyzes the project risk in the planning and design stage of BRT from five aspects of technology,policy,economy,environment and management,and constructs a set of risk index system and risk evaluation model.This paper carries out the following research on the risk management in the planning and design stage of BRT.(1)Firstly,it introduces the development background and research status of BRT system,analyzes the success and failure cases of BRT construction in various cities,and expounds the significance and necessity of risk management in the planning and design stage of BRT project.This paper analyzes the theoretical basis and research methods of project risk evaluation and selects the appropriate risk management evaluation method according to the characteristics of BRT project.(2)Collect basic data to establish target benefits,conduct case analysis of BRT project based on failure theory and target benefits,and obtain the risk primary indicators.Finally,identify the technical risk,policy risk,economic risk The risk evaluation index system in the planning and design stage of BRT project is composed of 5 primary indicators and 16 secondary indicators of environmental risk and management risk.(3)the risk factors are subjectively and objectively weighted by analytic hierarchy process(AHP)and critical method respectively to obtain the subjective weight and objective weight;Then,based on the game theory,the two are combined to obtain a more scientific and reasonable combination weight;Finally,the evaluation model of BRT planning and design stage based on cloud model is constructed to obtain the risk evaluation grade of each risk index of the project.(4)Based on risk factors and practical engineering experience,risk prevention measures are proposed,and preventive countermeasures are summarized.(5)Take Yanji BRT project as an example to evaluate the risk level of the project,put forward preventive measures and response plans according to the risk conclusion,and finally predict the traffic operation of the project and analyze the social benefits to verify the effect of risk prevention measures.The index system,research contents and results of this paper can provide a reference for the risk evaluation and control of BRT projects in the future,help decision makers and construction units to measure and play a guiding role in the implementation process.