| As two different spaces,urban and rural areas are both distinct and interconnected.With the development of reform and opening up,the connection between urban and rural areas has become closer and more frequent,and the gap is widening.In order to coordinate urban and rural development,achieve the goal of "two hundred years",and let urban and rural areas share the fruits of development,the Chinese government has proposed the implementation of rural revitalization strategy and the promotion of integrated urban and rural development since 2017.As the most basic development elements of urban-rural development,population,economy,land,social services and spatial layout influence each other and promote each other,it is scientific and reasonable to summarize the development trend of urban-rural integration from these perspectives and propose reasonable strategies with high reference value.Land,as the carrier of all activities,is closely related to population activities and economic development,and is better controlled than population flow and economic development,etc.It has been a key link in the study of high-quality development,and it is important to simulate the scale of urban-rural land use under different development scenarios and propose a reasonable implementation plan for integrated development within villages and towns.This paper takes Duchang County of Jiangxi Province as an example,constructs an evaluation system of urban-rural integration development level according to the urban-rural integration theories at home and abroad,summarizes the development trend and problems,analyzes the correlation and relevance of urban-rural integration index elements and land scale,builds a system dynamics model to predict the land scale under different scenarios in 2035,and constructs a "county city-township-central village" three-level node regional integration development system.--On the basis of this,a system dynamics model is constructed to predict the land scale under different scenarios in 2035,and to build a three-level node regional integration development system of "county city-township-central village".The main conclusions are:(1)The overall trend of urban-rural integration is on the rise,with good development prospect and obvious stage characteristics.There are gaps in the level of integration of various factors,with the best economic integration and the worst land integration.The urban-rural integration degree grows from 0.207 in 2010 to 0.799 in 2020,and can be divided into the starting stage from 2010-2012,the full development stage from 2013-2017 and the take-off stage from 2018-2020 according to its development characteristics.(2)Urban-rural integration is strongly correlated with most of the factor indicators,especially the population factor.Screening the indicators with high correlation continued to calculate Pearson correlation coefficients,and it was found that there was no correlation between teachers and students in basic education.The system dynamics model was constructed by selecting the indicators with high correlation and significant Pearson correlation.(3)The indicators are selected,the system dynamics model is constructed,and the scale of urban and rural land use in 2035 is simulated under different scenarios.Under different scenarios,the parameters are different,and the final output area scale is also different.Under the three scenarios,the total scale of urban and rural land use reaches 135km2,among which the area of urban land use exceeds 20 km2 and the scale of village land use reaches more than 110 km2.(4)Analyze the current policy and realistic background of internal optimization of villages and towns,and propose the idea of promoting the integrated development of the whole area with nodes and efficient land use.Combining the scale,level,infrastructure and future development plan of the whole region,23 township centers,3 sub-centers and 75 central villages are identified to build a "county city-township center-key central village" A multi-level integrated development system is proposed,and different land use and other development strategies are proposed for different levels of areas to promote the flow of urban and rural elements. |
PDF Full Text Request