Study On Risk Assessment Of BIPV Housing Project Development Based On DEMATEL-ANP Method

At present,the world is facing severe challenges of environmental pollution and energy exhaustion.Under the constraints of energy and environment,it is of great strategic significance to develop and use the solar energy resources to alleviate the energy pressure in our country and to achieve the "Dual Carbon" targets.BIPV(Photovoltaic Building Integration)is a sustainable ecological integrated design strategy to promote the energy transformation in the building sector,to build zero-carbon buildings,so as to achieve carbon peak and carbon neutrality in the building sector.Currently,the application in residential buildings is mainly in the form of BAPV,which is attached to the roof of the building photovoltaic system.The BIPV residential project has not only considered the aesthetics of the building,but also integrated with the design,construction and installation of the residential building at the same time,and can generate electric power and even create benefits within a certain range.However,due to the late development of BIPV in our country,the relevant standards and technical specifications are not perfect,the financing is difficult,the industrial chain is imperfect,and the initial cost investment is large,not only leads to the increase of construction costs,but also increases the risk of uncertainty in the process of project development,so the study of BIPV housing project development risk assessment is of great significance.Based on the idea of risk identification-risk analysis-risk assessment,the following studies are carried out:Firstly,through the collection and study of relevant literature and norms,identified risk factors preliminarily.Based on the whole life cycle theory,the development of BIPV housing project is divided into four stages: preliminary decision,preparation and design,project implementation and operation and maintenance.The WBS-RBS matrix is established to identify and correspond the risk factors one by one.Experts were invited to judge the results.Through statistical analysis of the data,the boundary value method was used to process the judgment results,and 22 key risk indicators were selected to build the risk assessment index system of BIPV housing project.Secondly,the DEMATEL-ANP-Grey Clustering Analysis risk assessment model was established,and the principles and steps of the combination of the three are introduced.The decision laboratory method(DEMATEL)was introduced to construct the direct impact matrix and comprehensive impact matrix of risk indicators,obtain the centrality and cause degree ranking of each risk indicator,accurately identify the main risk factors,clarify the causal relationship among indicators,and draw the causal relationship diagram.Based on the risk influence relationship obtained by DEMATEL method,network analysis method(ANP)is used to construct pairwise dominance comparison matrix in Super Decision software to determine the weight of risk factors.Finally,Project A is selected for empirical study.Based on the extraction of key risk factors and the determination of the weight of risk factors,the grey clustering analysis method is used to evaluate the risk level of project A development.The evaluation results are compared with the actual situation,and the results show that the DEMATEL-ANP-Grey Clustering Analysis model is consistent with the actual situation,which further verifies the feasibility and effectiveness of the model.The evaluation results were analyzed and relevant suggestions were put forward for reference in the subsequent development process of BIPV residential projects.