Simulation Research Of The Constraints On The Green Retrofit Of Existing Buildings And Strategies For Its Promotion

The construction industry is a pillar industry in China’s economic development,making significant contributions to absorbing employment,protecting people’s livelihood and boosting domestic demand.At present,the traditional infrastructure and old housing have high energy consumption and emission and numerous problems,which bring great challenges to the construction industry to achieve the goal of carbon peak and carbon neutral,while green retrofit is based on the original building,which has the characteristics of small energy loss,retaining urban landscape and saving government expenditure,so the implementation of green retrofit is an inevitable choice for sustainable construction.However,green retrofit of existing buildings is a complex project involving the participation of multiple subjects and multiple factors,and there are many obstacles in the actual promotion process,for example,how to coordinate the interests of all parties and improve the efficiency of retrofit are issues of great concern to academia and industry.In addition,the existing research lacks systematic consideration of the constraints of green retrofit,especially the lack of attention to the dynamics of the constraints,and the problem of how to promote the green retrofit of existing buildings has not been effectively solved.In order to solve the above research problems,firstly,the literature research method,case study method and questionnaire survey method were used to screen and integrate the constraints existing in the green retrofit process,to explain the connotation of each constraint,and to classify the constraints in a hierarchical manner with the help of the interpretive structural model,and to analyze the internal relationship and hierarchical structure among the constraints;secondly,based on the S green retofit project field research,Shenzhen Statistical Yearbook and expert interviews and other sources to obtain relevant data and construct a system dynamics model of green retrofit of existing buildings;finally,the model is tested to map out the market demand development trend,find the sensitive factors that constrain green retrofit,and propose the best driving strategy according to the system simulation results.Based on the above research,the main findings are as follows:(1)green retrofit of existing buildings is influenced by 23 factors at five levels: policy and law,economic management,market environment,engineering technology,and individual willingness;(2)the constraints are divided into six levels,among which insufficient policy and legal system,insufficient information,lack of professional talents and insufficient investment in scientific research are the fundamental constraints of green transformation;(3)driven by relevant factors,the market demand shows an increasing development trend over time,which better reflects the future development scale of green retrofit;(4)government publicity has the most significant impact on the market demand and owner acceptance,the green retrofit industry chain has the strongest effect on the cost impact factor,and for the green performance level,the degree of information disclosure is the main factor affecting its change;(5)it is found that a single variable has limited influence on the green retrofit of existing buildings,while on the contrary when the variables such as government publicity,scientific research investment,information disclosure degree and green retrofit industry chain are improved as a whole,they have a significant promotion effect on the green retrofit of existing buildings.This study enriches the research perspective in the field of green retrofit of existing buildings and extends the application of research models in green retrofit research.At the same time,it has important theoretical significance and practical value for the scale development of green retrofit of existing buildings and the long-term management at the later stage.