Research On The Construction Of High-speed Railway Project Based On Real Option

In recent years,transportation planning has paid particular attention to high-speed rail projects,and more and more cities have started to plan and build high-speed railroads.However,there are many uncertainties in the process of high-speed rail projects with large investment amounts and long construction planning cycles,so how to choose the best time to build high speed rail projects has become an urgent problem to be solved.Building highspeed rail ahead of time will not guarantee the economy of high-speed rail construction projects;building high-speed rail behind schedule will affect urban development and economic growth.Therefore,it is necessary to study the reasonable selection of the construction time of high-speed railway projects,which can also provide a theoretical basis for the planning and implementation of high-speed railway project construction.In the past,the NPV method and other dynamic cash flow methods were mainly used to assess the value of high-speed rail projects,but these methods ignore the value of management flexibility embedded in investment decisions,while the real options method can exactly compensate for the shortcomings of the NPV method.This paper first analyzes the uncertainty factors affecting the timing of high-speed railway construction and the feasibility of applying real options theory in the investment decision of high-speed railway projects.After that,it identifies the types of options existing in each phase of the high-speed railway project,focuses on the optimal construction timing as the key research content,focuses on analyzing the delayed options in the high-speed railway project,approximates the high-speed railway construction timing as a call option,uses geometric Brownian motion to describe the changes of uncertainties,and finally uses Monte Carlo simulation to solve for the optimal construction timing of the high-speed railway project.This thesis takes the Yong-Tai-Wen high-speed railroad in Zhejiang Province,which is in the 14 th Five-Year Plan period,as a case study to analyze the composition of the value of high-speed railroad projects and the sources of uncertainties affecting the construction timing of high-speed railway projects,to divide the value of high-speed railway projects into four parts: construction cost,operation cost,operation revenue and socio-economic benefits,and to establish their dynamic models over time respectively.This paper assumes that passenger flow,construction cost and operation cost obey geometric Brownian motion.The socio-economic benefits include two parts: passenger time saving value and net social growth value,and the socio-economic value is calculated according to the study of the role of high-speed rail construction on socioeconomic benefits.This paper focuses on considering the delayed option value of high-speed railway project,constructing the economic value model of highspeed railway project including uncertainties,and determining the optimal construction timing with the objective of maximizing the economic value of high-speed railway project,solving the value of optimal construction time using crystal ball software and conducting sensitivity analysis.