Research On Energy Security Evaluation And Prediction In Inner Mongolia

As an important material foundation for promoting industrial development,social progress and scientific and technological upgrading,energy is closely related to the survival and life of human beings.As an important part of the national security strategy,energy security is of great significance to ensuring regional stability and national economic development.As one of the national energy strategic bases,Inner Mongolia’s coal output accounts for about a quarter of China’s total coal output,and at the same time,rich new energy resource endowments provide an important force for promoting China’s energy structure transformation.Taking Inner Mongolia’s energy security as the research object,this paper evaluates and predicts Inner Mongolia’s energy security from the perspective of time and space by constructing an evaluation index system Flat.Firstly,by sorting out the theories related to energy security assessment,energy security prediction and energy security of predecessors,this paper explores the research status of energy security evaluation and energy security prediction,clarifies the concept of energy security and the evolution process of energy security in China,and believes that the evolution of energy security in China mainly has experienced the evolution process of energy type security(single type of energy security,multiple types of energy security),energy structure security and systematic energy security,and determines the research objects and research methods based on this.Secondly,based on the evolution of China’s energy security and related research on energy security,this paper descriptively analyzes the current energy situation in Inner Mongolia from five perspectives: energy supply,consumption,economy,environment and transportation.Thirdly,based on the characteristics of major energy provinces,this paper constructs an energy security evaluation index system with 18 indicators in five dimensions: energy supply,energy consumption,energy economy,energy environment and energy transportation,and evaluates and predicts the energy security of Inner Mongolia from the time and space dimensions according to the constructed energy security evaluation index system.In the time dimension,the overall energy security and sub-dimension energy security of Inner Mongolia were evaluated and predicted respectively.In terms of spatial dimension,according to the Action Plan for Energy Development Strategy(2014-2020)issued by the State Council in 2014,the three major energy producing provinces of Xinjiang,Shanxi and Shaanxi were selected for horizontal comparison with Inner Mongolia,and the overall energy security and energy security of each province were evaluated and predicted respectively,so as to compare and analyze with Inner Mongolia in the spatial dimension.Finally,according to the empirical research results of energy security in Inner Mongolia,policy suggestions to improve the level of energy security in Inner Mongolia are put forward from five perspectives: energy supply,energy consumption,energy economy,energy environment and energy transportation.The results of the study showed that:(1)In terms of time,the overall energy security of Inner Mongolia showed an upward trend in all other years except for the decline in 2012 and 2018,and the increase rate was large from 2015 to 2016,and the increase in other years was small;In the sub-dimension of energy security,energy supply security,energy environment security and energy transportation security have the same trend as overall energy security,while energy consumption security and energy economic security have opposite trends in overall energy security.The results of energy security prediction in time show that the prediction values of overall energy security,energy supply security and energy transportation security all show an upward trend,while the predicted values of energy consumption security and energy supply security show a downward trend,while the predicted values of energy environment security show an upward trend and then decline.(2)In terms of spatial dimension,compared with the other three provinces,Inner Mongolia has certain advantages in overall energy security,energy supply security and energy transportation security,and is at a disadvantage in energy consumption and energy environment security,of which energy and environmental security is only higher than that of Shanxi,and the gap is narrowing,while the energy economic security of the four provinces is showing a trend of first rising and then declining,and Inner Mongolia is in the change of first falling and then rising in the ranking of the four provinces;In the spatial dimension energy security forecast,the overall energy security,energy supply security,energy economic security and environmental security predictions of Inner Mongolia are in a downward trend in the ranking of the four provinces,while the predicted values of energy consumption security have been at a low level.