Research On Inner Mongolia Energy Freight Volume Forecast Based On CGE Model

The Inner Mongolia is one of China’s largest energy provinces.In recent years,the total volume of Inner Mongolia energy freight has been growing steadily,but the overall growth trend of freight volume has been slowly declining.One of the reasons for this is the waste of resources due to inaccurate and unreasonable forecasts of freight volume.Accurate forecasting of freight volume is of great significance to logistics and transportation planning,scientific management and optimal allocation of resources in Inner Mongolia.The forecast of freight volume is the key to carry out the freight work smoothly,and it is also an important index to measure the level of regional economic development.The change of freight volume reflects the change of current economic situation to some extent.On this basis,scientific and accurate prediction of freight volume,observation of the future trend of freight volume,and according to this trend to formulate appropriate measures,has a significant impact on regional economic development.As energy consumption continues to increase,Inner Mongolia energy transportation is on a continuous growth trend.Between 2017 and 2021,more than 85 percent of 2021 Inner Mongolia energy shipments were made up of crude oil,gas,hydropower and nuclear power.Large-scale utilization of coal resources will affect the natural environment and air quality,not conducive to sustainable development in the region.As a big province of energy supply in China,compared with other provinces of wind and solar resources,Inner Mongolia is faced with a more difficult path of energy development transition.At present,the models used to forecast freight volume mainly include System dynamics model,logit model,grey correlation analysis and ARIMA model,etc.,so forecasts are less comprehensive.The computable General Equilibrium Model(CGE)is a practical application of the general equilibrium model theory.It is characterized by the description of interdependent relationships between different sectors and economic accounting and the description,simulation and prediction of the impact of political change and economic activity on these relationships.The advantage of this method is that it is faster and the parameter estimation is more reliable.The computable general equilibrium model is a global equilibrium model that includes the relationship between supply and demand,can carry on the whole simulation to the regional economic activity.Based on the application of computable general equilibrium theory,the production function,trade function and economic agent behavior function are established to forecast the general equilibrium relationship.After the model was established,the Inner Mongolia was used as a case study for empirical analysis,the social accounting matrix was constructed using the latest official Inner Mongolia input-output tables,statistical yearbooks and fiscal yearbooks for 2017,and the GAMS program was written after the parameters were determined,from this Inner Mongolia the energy freight volume forecast.Finally,the Inner Mongolia of 2017-20212021 freight volume is used to verify the feasibility of the model in regional freight volume forecasting.The volume of Freight Inner Mongolia from 2022 to2035 is forecasted through the forecasting model,and the corresponding logistics planning suggestions are put forward.By establishing a scientific and reasonable regional energy freight volume forecasting model,it can effectively predict the regional energy freight volume change trend,and provide the necessary basis for regional logistics planning and logistics infrastructure investment,so as to promote more coordinated development of regional logistics and regional economy.