| ABSTRACT:Following the clear direction of regional economic development, the non-central city will play a significant role on undertaking industry, collecting and distributing goods. How to seek their own market potential demand in regional economic development and expand the service area will be a critical issue for non-central city. Among most research about the optimum freight volume forecasting mainly focused on the forecasting method improvement, competition relationship between node analysis, there is few research considering the effects of logistics node hierarchy in areas of cities, the non-central city logistics market spatial distribution to the optimum freight volume, but the problem is the basis for the development of non-central city logistics park. Therefore, research on forecasting the optimum freight volume of Luzhou Adjacent-port Logistics Park has important significance on the theory and practical.On the basis of Luzhou logistics park’planning, through a series of investigation and summary analysis, this thesis mainly from the following several aspects to discuss and research how to forecast the optimum freight volume of Luzhou Adjacent-port Logistics Park:(1)This article has divided the optimum freight volume forecasting of logistics park into three levels-regional freight volume forecasting, parks sharing volume forecasting, partition of assignment prediction, designed the main steps of forecasting the optimum freight volume of logistics park in the non-central city:divide area city level, defining the scope attract area, forecast freight volume of attraction area; topsis-entropy value method is used to forecast a single logistics park of its freight share volume; combining the qualitative and quantitative forecast method to predict typical operational areas of assignment and its area.(2)This thesis based on the regional economy data, using the principal component analysis evaluated the cities’comprehensive strength, divided the cities’level; using economic contact model determined the membership degree between non-central cities and center cities and the radiation intensity from center cities to non-central cities; using the breaking point formula calculated the equilibrium point between two non-central cities, determined the attraction area of to attract Luzhou Adjacent-port Logistics Park(3)This thesis based on the historical transportation statistics of each city, using grey prediction model and narnet model forecasted the freight volume of Luzhou Adjacent-port Logistics Park’s attraction area between2014and2020.(4)This thesis has established an index system for evaluating the competition relationship among different logistics parks, which includes three categories and ten specific indicators, covering the regional market conditions, traffic convergence conditions, construction and development conditions. According to the evaluation index system, the thesis has determined the competition relationship between Luzhou Adjacent-port Logistics Park and Fangshan Logistics Park, Naxi Logistics Park, Hejiang Logistics Park. Also, the freight volume which Luzhou Adjacent-port Logistics Park can afford in the target year is calculated. Based on the analysis of different industry chains, the thesis has raised a qualitative and quantitative method to determine the quantity of logistics activity and land area for different functional areas. |
