Research On Highway Freight Volume Forecast In Yunnan Province Based On Weighted Combination Model

Highway freight volume forecasting is not only the form of the road transport enterprises to the market development and the basis of the development strategy of the enterprise.At the same time,it is also the basis for government departments to plan the development of comprehensive transportation development and public investment road transport infrastructure projects.In order to make the highway transportation enterprises to grasp the market correctly and the government departments to make reasonable planning and effective investment,it is necessary to effective prediction of the highway freight volume.The predicted results of future plans and decision-making has significant.In this paper,the error caused by the fixed background value of grey prediction is improved,and the method of dichotomy iteration is proposed to improve the grey prediction model by taking the minimum average relative error as the goal.According to the value of Yunnan Province 2005-2014 10 years of highway freight volume and iteration when the background value is equal to 0.6625,made the prediction effect of the best to determine for Yunnan Province Highway Freight Volume Forecast Based on improved dichotomy of grey prediction model of background value is 0.6625.After analyzing the influence factors of the highway freight volume in Yunnan Province,the system dynamics model is established,which is suitable for the highway freight volume system in Yunnan Province.Based on the statistic value of the influence factors of the highway freight volume in Yunnan Province,the influence factors of the system dynamics prediction model are determined by analyzing the relationship between the influencing factors and the freight volume.Based on historical data of highway freight volume and its influence factors,the region of Yunnan Province,GDP,employment,investment in fixed assets and freight volume prediction,the validity model is verified through the analysis of the results of the prediction.At the end of this paper,in Yunnan Province 2005-2014 highway freight volume of 10 years of data as the basis,respectively,using improved dichotomy of grey prediction and system dynamics model prediction of Yunnan Province 2005-2014 highway freight volume forecast and the predicted value and the actual value fitting analysis.Analysis results indicate that using 0.2 weights in the improved grey prediction model and 0.8 weighting system dynamics model of the combination model of optimal results.So,this paper adopted the weighted combination of the weight distribution ratio model of Yunnan Province 2015-2020 highway freight volume forecast.This paper studies the weighted combination forecasting method of highway freight volume,which can improve the accuracy of freight volume forecasting.Forecasting results can be used in enterprise planning and decision-making,road transport development strategy,transportation planning,design and evaluation,there is an important theoretical research value and a wide range of practical application value.