Research On Forecast Of Container Throughput Of Dalian Port

In the era of global economic integration,China’s container logistics has entered a stage of vigorous development.As the opening window of Northeast China,Dalian has an important strategic position,and its development is of great significance to the construction of the international shipping center in Northeast Asia.As a complex and open dynamic system,port container throughput is an important indicator to measure port development,and its container throughput prediction has become a hot research topic at present.However,at present,it is often difficult to describe the complex and nonlinear operation of port container throughput with a single or simple combination forecasting model.It is still necessary to analyze and forecast the system framework of complex port container throughput.In this paper,Dalian Port is analyzed from the geographical and economic dimensions,a dynamic open port system framework is constructed,and a model of TEI@I integrated forecast is built for Dalian Port based on the idea of TEI@I method.The VAR model is used to predict the linear trend of the linear part,and the residual sequence between the result and the true value is used as the mapping function of the nonlinear part BP neural network model to learn and train the neural network.In the prediction part,the trend prediction sequence of VAR model and the output layer of LSTM long and short term memory network are used as the input layer of the trained BP neural network for rolling prediction of the sample sequence of related indicators,and the output is TEI@I integrated prediction result.By using the monthly data from January 2009 to December 2022 to forecast the container throughput of Dalian Port,the results show that the theoretical model has obvious superiority over other single models in complex systems,and the accuracy has been significantly improved.Through the integrated forecasting model,the container throughput of Dalian Port is predicted and analyzed,and the future development trend of Dalian Port is obtained.According to the forecast results,it is proposed to strengthen infrastructure construction,coordinate economic development of hinterland port cities,improve the business environment of ports,deepen the policy of opening up to the outside world,and build a sea-rail multimodal transport system.Improve the level of port information,coordinate port industrial structure and the introduction of professional talents to enhance the status and competitiveness of Dalian international hub port.