Research On The Efficiency Of China’s Overseas Investment Ports Based On Prospect Theory

Since the "21st Century Maritime Silk Road" initiative,China has accelerated the construction of global maritime networks and strategic layout of ports,and the speed of investment in overseas ports has increased rapidly,forming a high-standard trade network based on the periphery,radiating "One Belt,One Road" and facing the world.network.Because of the large number of overseas port projects in China and the characteristics of high cost,high risk and many influencing factors of port investment,the efficiency of overseas ports will directly affect the layout of ports and the formulation of relevant policies,so a reasonable evaluation of the efficiency of China’s overseas investment in ports can not only objectively show the current situation of overseas port investment and construction,but also help to screen the strategic nodes at sea and put forward targeted countermeasures and suggestions for port efficiency improvement and network layout.It is also helpful to screen the strategic nodes at sea and propose targeted countermeasures and suggestions for port efficiency improvement and network layout.This paper takes Chinese overseas invested ports as the research object and analyzes the operational efficiency and impact of existing invested ports by taking 13 overseas invested port nodes of COSCO Shipping Company as samples.Firstly,the efficiency of overseas ports is evaluated from the perspective of quantifiable economic indicators.Considering that the efficiency of ports is influenced by qualitative indicators such as national strategies and global layout,the efficiency of ports is evaluated from both qualitative and quantitative aspects of comprehensive indicators.The main research contents are as follows:(1)Port efficiency evaluation based on economic indicators: to address the inconsistency of evaluation results caused by the diversity of cross-efficiency models and aggregation methods,the cross-efficiency model is used to calculate the efficiency evaluation matrix,the prospective theoretical decision-making process is improved and modified through the interpreference Euclidean distance method,and the comprehensive weight values are calculated by unifying the strategies of multiple decision makers,and finally the evidence-based reasoning is introduced to the efficiency matrix and comprehensive weight values.(2)Analysis of factors affecting port efficiency(2)Analysis of port efficiency impact factors: Tobit model is used to analyze the impact factors of port efficiency,and on this basis the impact of equity allocation on port efficiency is simulated and analyzed;(3)As for the evaluation of port efficiency based on comprehensive indexes: the efficiency evaluation method of prospect theory-cloud model is established,and the port efficiency values are analyzed from the perspectives of qualitative and quantitative indexes respectively,and for the problem of fogging of indexes at all levels in the synthesis of cloud model,nonlinear programming is introduced to correct the entropy value and super entropy,so as to obtain a comprehensive evaluation cloud.The results show that the efficiency evaluation method not only retains the consistency of cross-evaluation criteria,but also solves the problem of singularity and subjectivity of determining weights by prospect theory,and the introduction of nonlinear programming can effectively solve the problem of cloud model fogging and achieve reasonable evaluation of efficiency.As for the factors influencing port efficiency,the import and export situation and the degree of informationization are positively correlated with port efficiency;the infrastructure situation and the proportion of tertiary industry are negatively correlated with efficiency;the change of equity will lead to three kinds of changes in port efficiency towards,the higher the degree of equity control is not the better,depending on the operation level and management situation of overseas ports,and the equity proportion should ensure the ownership of the management right of the port while taking into account The port’s own efficiency.The comprehensive efficiency evaluation of the port shows that the efficiency performance of the case port is basically in line with the expectation and actual operation situation.