| Energy is the driving force of social and economic development.China,which has entered a phase of high-quality economic development,is the world’s largest energy consumer and its energy needs are increasing day by day.Russia’s energy resources are not only diverse,but also rich in reserves and have great potential for exploitation.Due to the RussianUkrainian war,Russia is facing pressure from the West,especially the United States,and Russia’s energy exports are being restricted.In order to ensure stable economic growth,Russia is actively pursuing an energy development strategy for the Asia-Pacific region.Russia has superior geo-economic conditions with China,and trading with it can increase China’s energy supply channels,which is of strategic importance to ensure China’s energy security.In 2017,the leaders of China and Russia officially proposed the establishment of the“Polar Silk Road”,of which strengthening Sino-Russian energy cooperation is a key element.Consequently,it is important to consider how the construction of the “Polar Silk Road” will affect the Sino-Russian energy trade and facilitate the growth of the Chinese economy in the coming era.Firstly,this paper collates the concepts related to the “Polar Silk Road” and the energy trade between China and Russia,and reviews the current status of research on the “Polar Silk Road” and Sino-Russian trade,on the basis of which the research path of this paper is proposed.Secondly,the current supply and demand of energy resources,the scale and structure of trade between China and Russia are analyzed and organized.The results show that China’s overall demand for oil,gas and coal is on the rise;Russia produces more energy than it consumes and has a good energy export base;the share of Sino-Russian energy trade in Russia’s energy trade is gradually increasing;China’s energy imports to Russia are mainly oil,with natural gas and coal accounting for a small proportion and the product structure is unbalanced;Russia has a low level of trade facilitation and high tariff barriers in energy.Then,the paper uses the dynamic recursive GTAP10 model to simulate the potential impact of SinoRussian energy trade under the construction of the “Polar Silk Road”.The document sets out four scenarios: reducing transport distances between China and Russia,increasing trade facilitation,creating a free trade zone and achieving all three objectives simultaneously.It shows that the establishment of the “Polar Silk Road” will contribute to promoting economic growth and deepening energy trade between China and Russia,and will significantly expand the scope of China’s energy trade;compared to the reduction of shipping distances and trade liberalization,the improvement in the level of trade facilitation has had a more significant effect on the enhancement of energy trade between Russia and China;the reallocation effect of China’s energy resource imports resulting from increased trade facilitation is significant,that is,the increase in China’s energy imports from Russia and the decrease in imports from other countries will have a negative impact on the diversification of China’s energy imports;the promotion effect of the reduction of shipping distances and trade liberalization on China’s coal imports and Russian oil exports is more significant;the increased level of trade facilitation will significantly boost China’s gas imports from Russia.Finally,based on the results of the empirical simulation,the feasibility path and policy suggestions for promoting the deepening development of Sino-Russian energy trade are put forward in the light of the current situation of Sino-Russian energy trade. |
