| Camellia oleifera is a woody oil crop with high economic and ecological value.But in the development of C.oleifera industry,the yield and quality of C.oleifera are seriously restricted by diseases and pests.In this study,based on the data of the distribution points of C.oleifera anthracnose and Euproctis pseudoconspersa and the data of environmental climate,the Maxent model was used to analyze the distribution of C.oleifera anthracnose and E.pseudoconspersa,the potential distribution of C.oleifera anthracnose and E.pseudoconspersa under the current climate conditions were predicted by simulation,and the correlation between them and environmental factors was revealed,the evolution of its distribution pattern under three climate scenarios(SSP 1-2.6,SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5)in the next two periods(2050 and 2070)is predicted,the results provide the scientific basis for early warning and specific control of C.oleifera anthracnose and E.pseudoconspersa.The main conclusions are as follows:(1)Establishment of species distribution model.In this study,232 effective distribution data and climate data were combined to select effective climate variables to establish the MaxEnt model,and ROC(receiver operating characteristic curve)curve was used to evaluate the accuracy.The test results were:① AUC(area under curve)value in ROC test of MaxEnt model of C.oleifera anthracnose was 0.943,reaching the"excellent" level;② The AUC value in the ROC test of MaxEnt model of E.pseudoconspersa was 0.934,reaching the "excellent"level.This result indicates that the MaxEnt model can be used to study the potential distribution range of C.oleifera anthracnose and E.pseudoconspersa in China.(2)Prediction of potential distribution pattern of C.oleifera anthracnose.①Precipitation of driest quarter(Bio 17),annual precipitation(Bio12),max temperature of warmest month(Bio5)and mean diurnal range(Bio2)were the dominant factors affecting the distribution of C.oleifera anthracnose.From the response curve,when the precipitation of driest quarter is higher than 80mm,the annual precipitation is 12501750mm,the max temperature of warmest month is 31.5℃-34℃,and the mean diurnal range is 7.3℃-8.6℃,it is most suitable for the survival of C.oleifera anthracnose.②The total area suitable for C.oleifera anthracnose accounted for 17.5%of China’s land area,of which the high-suitable area was 507000 km2,the medium-suitable area was 568000 km2,and the suitable low-suitable area was 609000 km2.③In the following two periods and three climate scenarios,the newly suitable areas for C.oleifera anthracnose were between 244000 and 604000 km2,and the migration distance of the geographic distribution center is between 70.3 and 160.9 km.With the intensification of climate change,the trend of distribution areas and geographic distribution centers became more apparent.(3)Prediction of potential distribution pattern of E.pseudoconspersa.①Precipitation of driest month(Bio 14),annual precipitation(Bio 12),min temperature of coldest month(Bio6)and mean diurnal range(Bio2)were the dominant climate variables affecting the distribution of E.pseudoconspersa.When the precipitation of driest month is 28-148mm,the annual precipitation is 1290-2080mm,the min temperature of coldest month is 1.0-10.1℃,and the mean diurnal range is 7.2-8.5℃,it is most suitable for the survival of E.pseudoconspersa.②The total suitable area of E.pseudoconspersa accounted for 20.0%of China’s land area,of which the high-suitable area was 642000 km2,the medium-suitable area was 618000 km2,and the low-suitable area was 660000 km2.③The newly-increased suitable area of E.pseudoconspersa was between 94.4 and 331000 km2,and the migration distance of the geographical distribution center was between 24.4 and 125.1 km.With the intensification of climate change,the trend of distribution areas and geographic distribution centers became more apparent.In conclusion,under the future climate scenario,the suitable habitats of C.Oleifera anthracnose and E.pseudoconspersa will expand northward and westward to the high latitude inland areas.Therefore,it is suggested that the relevant departments should make plans and policies in advance to strengthen the observation and control of C.Oleifera anthracnose and E.pseudoconspersa to reduce their losses to the C.Oleifera industry. |
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