Prediction Of Suitable Area And Spatial Pattern Change Of Empetrum Nigrum Var.japonicum Based On Climate Change Background

Empetrum nigrum var.Japonicum is a kind of eco-economic tree species that is rich in edible,medicinal and water conservation functions,and is a rare and dangerous plant in our country.To explore the changes of potential suitable areas of Empetrum nigrum var.japonicum under different climate change backgrounds,so as to provide scientific guidance and theoretical basis for finding the undiscovered distribution of Empetrum nigrum var.japonicum and planning its introduction and cultivation.In this study,the Max Ent model was used to predict the potential distribution areas of different current and future climate scenarios(SSP126,SSP245,SSP585)based on the Empetrum nigrum var.japonicum distribution data and 30"resolution environmental data in China.The main environmental factors affecting its growth were analyzed by knife cutting method.Arc GIS was used to explore the change of its spatial pattern.The main research results are as follows:(1)The model was optimized and adjusted by ENMeval data package after 10 times of simulation training,which proved that the model had high accuracy and good accuracy,and its average AUC reached 0.998.(2)Under current climate conditions,the average temperature in the driest season,the lowest temperature in the coldest month,altitude,the highest temperature in the hottest month,average annual temperature,seasonal variation coefficient of temperature and annual precipitation are the main environmental factors affecting the distribution of Empetrum nigrum var.japonicum in China,which are sensitive to climate change.(3)Max Ent model predicted that the potential suitable area of Empetrum nigrum var.japonicum was 48,574.86 km~2,and its geometric center migration trend moved southward in two adjacent periods,namely from the current to the 2050s and from the2050s to the 2090s.The maximum migration distance of different climate scenarios was58460 m and 76,988 m.Empetrum nigrum var.japonicum Eventually,suitable areas will migrate to low temperature areas at high altitudes and latitudes.(4)In the context of climate change,the viable range of Empetrum nigrum var.japonicum will shrink,and climate change will lead to changes in its spatial distribution pattern.And the change area is mainly in the Greater Khingan Mountains.(5)It is one of the most effective measures to strengthen the in situ protection of the existing A in the northern forest area of the Daxinganling Region.