Coupling Coordination Of Cultivated Land Productivity And Food Security In Northeast Black Soil Region

Food security is an important part of national security.The key to solve the problem of food security lies in how to guarantee the productivity of cultivated land and improve the stability of production system.Regional cultivated land productivity and food security system are independent and influence each other,and the system coordination mode will directly affect the sustainable development ability of regional cultivated land and food system,and then have an important impact on national food security.As the "stabilizer" and "ballast stone" to guarantee the national food security,the northeast black soil region’s cultivated land productivity is related to the long-term and stable development of the national food security strategy.However,at the same time of achieving the grain yield target,the cultivated land in the northeast black soil area is facing the severe challenge of becoming "thin" and "hard",and the cultivated land productivity and food security system are facing the risk of imbalance.Therefore,it is of great significance to explore the coupling mechanism and coordinated development trend of cultivated land productivity and food security in the northeast black soil region for putting forward targeted suggestions on cultivated land protection policies and realizing long-term guarantee of national food security.Based on the analysis of the coupling theory between cultivated land productivity and food security based on the sustainable development theory,man-land relationship theory,coupling coordination theory and other basic theories,this study adopted a variety of statistical analysis models to carry out the evaluation and coupling coordination relationship between cultivated land productivity and food security from the multi-scale of "province-county".First of all,the paper defines the core concepts and deduces the coupling relationship between cultivated land productivity and food security system in northeast black soil region according to relevant theories.Secondly,two evaluation index systems were constructed respectively,and the genetic projection pursuit model was used to comprehensively evaluate and analyze the cultivated land productivity and food security system in the northeast black soil region.Thirdly,the coupling coordination degree model was used to analyze the coupling coordination relationship between the two,and the cultivated land pressure index was used to reflect the cultivated land state in the process of coordinated development under the highly coupling condition.Thirdly,21 typical black soil counties were selected to calculate and analyze the coordinated development trend of regional system by using the modified cultivated land pressure index model and the gray-BP combined prediction model.Finally,it puts forward specific policy suggestions based on the coordination relationship and development type of each region.The conclusions of this study are as follows:(1)The cultivated land productivity level in the Northeast black soil region from 2004 to 2020 is greatly affected by the agricultural production conditions,and the food security level is greatly affected by the availability,among which the cultivated land area is the key factor affecting the food security.The comprehensive level of the two systems presents an overall rising trend,with slight fluctuations in some years.(2)The cultivated land productivity and food security system in the northeast black soil region are highly coupled,and the coordination level has a steady increasing trend;From the perspective of coordination type,cultivated land productivity and food security system as a whole develop synchronously from "double low type" to "double high type" year by year,and the lag of cultivated land productivity is easy to occur during the coordinated development.(3)There was a significant negative correlation between the cultivated land pressure caused by the lag of cultivated land productivity and the coupling coordination level of cultivated land productivity and food security in the northeast black soil region.The lower the coordination level between cultivated land productivity and food security system is,the greater the cultivated land pressure is,and the higher the coordination level is,the smaller the cultivated land pressure is.(4)For the typical black soil area,from the perspective of time sequence changes,the cultivated land pressure improved overall from 2004 to 2019,but there were still some areas with arable land productivity lag due to high intensity utilization.From the perspective of spatial difference,the center of gravity of cultivated land pressure shifted from northwest to southeast,and the coordination level of cultivated land productivity and food security system in this region was not optimistic.(5)The coupling coordination trend of cultivated land productivity and food security in the typical black soil area of northeast China is good on the whole,but worrisome in some areas.The cultivated land pressure in Nehe,Changtu,Yi ’an and other areas may rise again or appear pressure warning or even imbalance phenomenon.The implementation of the black land protection and utilization pilot project policy can effectively relieve the pressure of regional cultivated land and improve the coordination degree of the system,but there is a certain lag.(6)Based on the research results,countermeasures and suggestions were proposed to promote coordinated development of the system according to local conditions for coordinated development regions,arable land productivity lagging regions and food security lagging regions.