Research On The Influence Of Geopolitical Risks On The Price Fluctuation Of Major International Grain Varieties

The price of grain is related to the national economy,people’s livelihood and national food security.However,various geopolitical events,such as war and terrorist acts,are occurring frequently around the world today,profoundly affecting the global economic situation and increasing geopolitical risks.Under the influence of rising geopolitical risks,international price of grain fluctuating.This paper focuses on the impact of geopolitical risks on international prices of major grains,and strives to provide theoretical and empirical support for monitoring and preventing geopolitical risks and maintaining national grain securityThis paper selects the index constructed by Caldara and Iacoviello to measure geopolitical risk,selects the futures price data of continuous contracts of soybean,corn,wheat and rice on the Chicago Board of Trade(CBOT)as the grain price variables,calculates the impact of geopolitical risk on major international grain varieties through TVP-VAR model after data preprocessing,and analyzes the conclusions.The empirical results show that:(1)During the sample period,with the expansion of lag periods,the impact of geopolitical risks on grain prices gradually weakened.(2)Different kinds of grain have different responses to shocks in different periods.The fluctuation of grain prices is greatly impacted by geopolitical risks,and the impact continues to existing.Generally,it is only after one year that it begins to stabilize.Soybean and corn were the most affected,followed by rice,and wheat was the least affected.(3)Different geopolitical events have different impacts on grain prices.In the three periods of the "9·11" incident in 2001,the "Iraq War" in 2003 and the "RussianUzbekistan conflict" in 2022,the geopolitical risks have different impacts on grain prices.On the one hand,during the "9·11" incident and the "Iraq War" in 2003,geopolitical risks had a great negative impact on the impact of soybean and corn grain prices;Geopolitical risks have a positive and negative impact on the price of wheat and rice.On the other hand,during the "Russian-Uzbekistan conflict" in 2022,geopolitical risks had a negative impact on the price of soybean and wheat grain,a positive impact on the price of rice grain,and a positive and negative impact on the price of corn grain.(4)The main reasons for the impact of geopolitical risks on the price fluctuation of different grain varieties are different.After the price returns of four grain varieties were impacted by geopolitical risks,the main reason for the impact of soybean,corn and wheat was the sub-index of geopolitical behavior(GPA),and the main reason for the impact of rice was the sub-index of geopolitical threat(GPT).Finally,based on the empirical conclusions and analysis,this paper puts forward relevant suggestions from the perspective of implementing food security and preventing geopolitical risks.