Study On Spatial-temporal Pattern Evolution And Influencing Factors Of Logistics Enterprises In Yunnan Province

It is pointed out in the 14 th Five-Year Plan of Modern Logistics Development that the logistics industry plays the role of "bridge" between production and consumption,and is a highly integrated function of distribution,storage,transportation,distribution,information and other functions.Yunnan Province plays an important role in the national development strategy and becomes the radiation center between China and South Asia and Southeast Asia.Therefore,the construction of a sound logistics network system can not only serve the logistics industry of Yunnan,but also promote the development of logistics industry in China and Southeast Asia.Therefore,it is of great theoretical and practical significance to develop the temporal variation and spatial distribution of logistics enterprises in Yunnan Province.Based on this,this study analyzes the spatial-temporal pattern evolution characteristics of logistics enterprises in Yunnan Province from 1991 to2021,explores the factors affecting the distribution of logistics enterprises from natural factors,economic factors and traffic factors,puts forward the existing problems in the development of logistics enterprises in Yunnan province,and gives optimization suggestions,in order to provide reference for the government to formulate logistics planning.From the perspective of time and space of geography,based on the review of relevant literature at home and abroad,this study comprehensively uses qualitative and quantitative methods as well as dynamic and static methods to measure logistics enterprises in Yunnan Province and explore the factors affecting logistics enterprises in Yunnan province.Firstly,statistical description analysis and neural network rolling prediction model were used to analyze the temporal variation characteristics of logistics enterprises in Yunnan Province from 1991 to 2021.Secondly,the average nearest neighbor and kernel density estimation were used to explore the spatial pattern distribution and evolution characteristics of the four logistics enterprises selected in this study,and then the mean center and standard deviation ellipse analysis and exploratory data spatial analysis methods were used to analyze the overall change trend of the distribution of center of gravity and direction of logistics enterprises.Finally,Pearson analysis and buffer zone analysis are used to analyze the influencing factors of logistics enterprises in Yunnan province.On the basis of the above empirical research,this paper puts forward the existing problems of logistics enterprises in Yunnan Province,and gives corresponding countermeasures and suggestions.Results(1)From the perspective of time,the number of logistics enterprises in Yunnan Province showed an exponential rising trend from 1991 to 2021,and the overall growth rate fluctuated greatly,among which the growth rate from 1998 to2000 changed the most,but the growth number was small;In Yunnan province,Kunming,Qujing,Dali and Dehong ranked the top four cities and states with a high number of logistics enterprises,while the bottom four cities and states with a low number of logistics enterprises were Deqing,Nujiang,Lijiang and Lincangzhou.The change of logistics enterprises in each city and state was basically consistent with that of the whole province,and the growth rate of logistics enterprises in Kunming was much higher than that in other cities and states.In the next 4 years,the number of logistics enterprises in the province and all cities and states will continue to maintain a trend of continuous growth,with only small changes.(2)From the perspective of space: Through the combination of nearest neighbor index and kernel density estimation,this study deeply analyzed the spatial evolution law of logistics enterprises in Yunnan province,and found that logistics enterprises in Yunnan province experienced three stages of "low level polarization,low level equilibrium and high level polarization",presenting an agglomeration trend from "one core and multiple centers" to "two core and multiple centers",and the agglomeration intensity increased year by year.After that,the distribution trajectory is judged by standard deviation ellipse and mean center.It is found that the mean center deviation of standard deviation ellipse is large,which is shifted by 48 km.The paper continues to analyze the spatial pattern evolution characteristics of different types of logistics enterprises,and finds that express,express and transportation logistics enterprises show a "multi-core and multi-center" distribution trend in 2021,while postal logistics enterprises always show a "multi-core and multi-center" distribution trend.In 1991,2001,2011 and 2021,the distribution of other types of logistics enterprises was basically "one core and multi-center".In terms of distribution trajectory change,transport logistics enterprises have the largest average center shift,which is 93 km,while postal logistics enterprises have the smallest one,which is 6km.(3)From the perspective of influencing factors: Pearson correlation analysis found that there was a significant positive correlation between the dam area and the number of logistics enterprises in the analysis of natural factors;In the analysis of humanistic factors,at the level of economic factors,residents’ disposable income,total retail sales of social commodities,industrial added value,GDP,the proportion of tertiary industry,total imports and exports,general public budget and the number of logistics enterprises all show significant positive correlation.At the level of population factors,there is a significant positive correlation between permanent population and population density and the number of logistics enterprises.At the level of policy factors,government policies and logistics planning have a significant guiding effect on the spatial pattern of logistics enterprises.In the analysis of traffic factors,it is found through the analysis of buffer zone that 94.217% of logistics enterprises are within the range when the buffer zone interval is set to 2000 m,indicating that logistics enterprises are dependent on traffic.