The Impact Of Youth Unemployment On Political Instability In Ethiopia

This thesis was conducted to examine the relationship between youth unemployment and political instability in Ethiopia.Unemployment and underemployment are critical problems in both developed and developing countries.According to various studies,in developing countries especially in Africa this high number of young bulges,combined with poverty and lack of enough labor market,exacerbates youth unemployment.It makes them feel neglected from using their country’s economic resources,and political and social participation.So this isolation and Complaint make young people more vulnerable to participate in the crime,conflict,and violence.Ethiopian youth people Repeated political violence and protests have been the main ones involved in,coordinating and leading the riots.Unemployed youth and university students,in particular,have been the main victims of these protests.Following these riots,the change of government took place in 2018,and various measures have been taken by the government to make economic and political changes but the country has not been able to break free from political instability till today.Ethiopia is a country with a large share of young people and a high rate of rural-urban migration.The main purpose of this study is to examine the causes of political instability in the country,the political protests,and riots that are taking place under the leadership,executive,and participation of the youth.This paper hypothesizes that when the number of unemployed youth increases it increases dissatisfaction and isolation of youth and it leads to conflict,violence,and riots this problem will leave the country more susceptible to political instability.The data I used to study this relationship was obtained from the World Bank Database,which analyzed the relationship between the country’s political instability and youth unemployment between 1980 and 2020 by using time series data.Political instability is the dependent variable and the explanatory variables are youth unemployment(YU),ethnic tension(ETT),GDP per capita(GDP),inflation rate(INF1),foreign direct investment(FDI),youth population(YUPOP),and GINI index(GINI).To illustrate this relationship,I conducted an ARDL model for estimation with important data tests by using Evew10 software.To determine the stationarity of a series has a unit root or not this study employed the Augmented DickeyFuller(ADF).According to the long-run elasticity result,one period lagged difference value of the youth unemployment rate positively and significantly affected the current period of political instability situation in the country.During the period included in the study GDP per capita also exerted a negative relationship effect on political instability and significantly affect the country’s political instability on both long-run and short-run estimation.The coefficient annual inflation(INF1)ethnic tension(ETT),GINI per capita(GINI Capita),youth population(YUPO),and foreign direct investment(FDI)have no significant effect in the long run estimation.But on the shortrun elasticity all determinants of political instability with the exception of ethnic tension(ETT),are the most significant.this indicates that political instability in Ethiopia is on the rise as youth unemployment increases.Finally,in this study,I can understand the root causes of the country’s ongoing political unrest and internal conflict,which is going contrary to Ethiopia’s double-digit economic growth is youth unemployment.So it needs a special employment policy and strategy to decrease the youth unemployment problem.It is necessary to formulate policies and strategies that can be evaluated in terms of ensuring the political,social,and economic participation of the youth and Creating a patriotic citizenry building the personality of the youth.In addition to this creating an institutional system that ensures equal participation of young people during implementation should be a key solution for the government.