Study On The Spatial Differences Of Population Aging In The Chengdu-Chongqing Economic Circle And Its Impact On Economic Developmen

In April 2011,The State Council officially approved the Regional Planning of Chengdu-Chongqing Economic Zone.In May 2016,the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development jointly initiated the Chengdu-Chongqing Urban Agglomeration Development Plan;In October 2021,the CPC Central Committee and The State Council issued the Outline of Construction Planning of Chengdu-Chongqing Twin Cities Economic Circle......The launch of a series of encouragement measures by the Party and the national government shows that the development of Chengdu-Chongqing economic circle is highly expected,and various economic data from 2010 to 2020 also show that chengdu-Chongqing economic circle has economic vitality.However,according to the seventh national census released in May 2021,Chongqing ranks second in the country with 17.08% of its population aged 65 or above,while Sichuan ranks third with 16.93%.And among the top ten cities with an aging population,Sichuan has only six seats.It seems that chengyu economic circle just took off and is facing the problem of "getting old before getting rich".At the same time,the level of aging in chengdu-Chongqing economic circle is not average,but shows two "depressions" of aging in chengdu and Chongqing.In this context,this paper analyzes the causes of the aging differences within chengdu-Chongqing economic circle,and studies the path of aging affecting economic development.This paper takes the population aged 65 and above in 44 cities of ChengduChongqing Economic Circle as the empirical research object,and selects data from statistical yearbook from 2007 to 2019 for analysis.First by the research results of scholars at home and abroad and the existing theory,make qualitative analysis on the factors affecting the aging of the population,and then use the space that is commonly used in metering Moran’s I scatter plot and LISA agglomeration figure tools,such as that the aging population distribution inside the chengdu-chongqing economic circle does not average,chengdu and chongqing urban two aging "depression".Then according to the theoretical analysis to select appropriate indicators to explain why the uneven aging of chengdu-Chongqing economic circle.Four spatial econometric models such as spatial error and spatial dubin are established to explain the economic meanings of these influencing factors.The empirical results show that 9 districts of Chongqing are in the low-low aggregation area,while Chengdu is in the low-high aggregation area.Two economic factors,GDP per capita and urbanization rate,have a significantly positive impact on aging,while birth rate,net migration rate and education level have a significantly negative impact on aging,while mortality and medical level have no significant impact on aging.It is found that the direct effect of per capita GDP is positive and the indirect effect is negative,which indicates that there is indeed a "siphon effect" in chengduChongqing economic circle.The direct effect of net migration rate and birth rate on population aging is negative,and the indirect effect does not pass the significance test of 5% level.The direct effect of education level is negative,but the indirect effect is positive.Finally,the mediating effect model is established to verify the influence path from the increase of aging level to the increase of social security and employment expenditure to economic growth.The results show that aging has a significant impact on the economy,among which 1.823% is generated by the increase of social security and employment expenditure by the government.This paper is different from the perspective of individual provinces and the whole country,and analyzes the aging situation of Chengdu-Chongqing economic circle from the perspective of an economic circle.This paper analyzes the overall level of aging in chengdu-Chongqing economic circle,how it is distributed,and why it appears,and probes into the causes of its formation.In terms of the explanation of the path of aging affecting the economy,based on China’s unique pay-as-you-go pension system,this paper makes an in-depth discussion from the path of increasing aging level → increasing social security and employment expenditure → economic growth,which is less studied.Finally,four suggestions are put forward for the construction of Chengdu-Chongqing economic circle,hoping that its development will lay a foundation for the next pole of China’s economic growth.