Research On The Income And Expenditure Balance Of The Basic Pension Insurance Fund For Urban Enterprise Employees In Shandong Province

With the intensification of the aging population in Shandong Province,the number of retired employees in urban enterprises is gradually increasing,and with the extension of per capita life expectancy,the time for retired employees to receive pension is also prolonged,and pension payments are facing enormous pressure.From the perspective of the income and expenditure of the basic pension insurance fund for urban enterprise employees in Shandong Province,the growth rate of the number of retired employees is higher than that of insured employees,while the contribution rate is reduced and the pension replacement rate is increased.In 2021,the current fund expenditure is greater than the fund income.Without financial subsidies,it is expected that by 2025,the accumulated balance will "bottom out",and the fund balance will face huge challenges,Therefore,the research on the balance of basic pension insurance funds for urban enterprise employees in Shandong Province has become an important social issue that needs to be urgently addressed.The paper first analyzes the income and expenditure of the basic pension insurance fund for urban enterprise employees in Shandong Province from 2011 to 2020;Secondly,based on the PADIS-INT population prediction model,predict the urban population,labor force population,and retirement population by gender and age in Shandong Province from 2021 to 2050;Once again,using actuarial methods,establish an actuarial model for the basic pension insurance fund for urban enterprise employees in Shandong Province,and simulate and analyze the income and expenditure balance of the basic pension insurance fund for urban enterprise employees in Shandong Province from 2021 to 2050;Finally,using sensitivity analysis methods,a systematic analysis was conducted on the key parameters that affect the balance of income and expenditure of the basic pension insurance fund for urban enterprise employees,and the following main research conclusions were drawn:(1)Based on the PADIS-INT population prediction model,it can be seen that within the target period of 2021-2050,in terms of population size,the growth rate curve shows a trend of first increasing and then decreasing for both the total male and female population in urban areas;From the perspective of population structure,the population aged 20-59 is gradually decreasing,while the population aged 60 and above is constantly increasing,with a serious trend of aging.(2)Taking into account factors such as the participation rate,contribution rate,number of insured retirees,and pension replacement rate of in-service employees in enterprises,an actuarial model for the balance of income and expenditure of the basic pension insurance fund for urban enterprise employees in Shandong Province is constructed.The study calculates the balance of income and expenditure of the fund from 2021 to 2050.The research shows that under existing policy conditions,it is expected that the accumulated balance will be broken in2025,Therefore,according to existing policies,the current balance of the fund is expected to be-11057.22 billion yuan by 2050,and the huge fund gap will seriously affect the sustainable development of the basic pension insurance fund for urban enterprise employees in Shandong Province.(3)Under the existing policy conditions,a sensitivity analysis of the balance of income and expenditure of the basic pension insurance fund for urban enterprise employees in Shandong Province shows that adjusting the contribution rate alone will increase the contribution rate from 24% in 2021 to 96% in 2040.Obviously,increasing the contribution rate alone is not feasible.Considering only the delayed retirement policy,there will be an imbalance of income and expenses by 2029 in the case of a one-year delayed retirement.If the fund achieves balance of income and expenditure,it is necessary to delay retirement for 8 years,which is clearly not feasible.Considering only the factor of government financial subsidies,the proportion of government financial subsidies in the current year’s fiscal revenue will rapidly increase from 4.36% in 2025 to 62.18% in 2040.Obviously,relying solely on government financial subsidies is not feasible.(4)According to calculations,it is currently best to adopt a combination of delayed retirement and government financial subsidies to ensure a balanced income and expenditure of urban enterprise employee pension insurance funds.Specifically,when retirement is delayed for one year,the proportion of government subsidies to GDP of that year increases from 0.43% in 2025 to 1.14% in 2050,and the proportion of government subsidies to general public budget revenue of that year increases from 0.04% in 2029 to 3.87% in 2050,which is within the government’s controllable range.(5)In order to further ensure the balance of income and expenditure of the basic endowment insurance fund for enterprise employees in Shandong Province,countermeasures and suggestions are proposed from the aspects of promoting the gradual delayed retirement policy,increasing government financial subsidies,promoting the maintenance and appreciation of the basic endowment insurance fund for enterprise employees,establishing and improving the multi pillar endowment insurance system,and improving the supervision mechanism of the basic endowment insurance fund for enterprise employees.