Chinese Infrastructure Investments In Africa Under The Impact Of Terrorist Attacks Social Vulnerability Analysis

Along with the release of the white paper "China-Africa Cooperation in a New Era",Chinese infrastructure investment in Africa will continue to expand in volume at present and in a long period of time in the future under the strategic context of "One Belt,One Road" with primary emphasis on infrastructure connectivity.However,some countries in Africa have rampant terrorist activities,and local environmental security issues have become the focus of China’s overseas interest protection research.Therefore,to study the social vulnerability of China’s infrastructure investment in Africa under the influence of terrorist attacks and to propose corresponding security interest protection paths is the key to guide Chinese enterprises’ choice of infrastructure investment in different African countries and to protect China’s security interests in Africa.This paper firstly collides China’s infrastructure investment in African countries with the terrorist attacks on African infrastructure,and identifies African countries with more terrorist attacks in both types of data as the research target.Secondly,based on the open source data information,such as China Global Investment Tracking Database,Global Terrorism Database(GTD),World Bank,Global Governance Indicators Database,etc.,and expert assessment data,a complete set of social vulnerability evaluation under the impact of terrorist attacks is established by combing the social vulnerability research framework,applying the social vulnerability index method,content analysis method,checklist method,and interview method,etc.,and establishing a complete set of social vulnerability evaluation under the impact of terrorist attacks by screening indicators and establishing weights.And then,through the construction of social vulnerability model and subjective and objective data processing,the evaluation results of social vulnerability of infrastructure investment in different countries in different years are obtained,and the evaluation results are analyzed in two dimensions of time and space.Finally,based on the content of the evaluation system and the analysis of the evaluation results,we guide Chinese enterprises to choose infrastructure investments in different African countries from the perspective of preventing and responding to terrorist attacks,and construct a path to protect the security interests of Chinese infrastructure investments in Africa.This paper limits the study to 11 African countries,namely Egypt,Algeria,Sudan,Nigeria,Niger,Kenya,Ethiopia,Cameroon,Democratic Republic of Congo,Mozambique,and South Africa,and restricts the time frame to three year intervals,2005-2011,2012-2014,and 2015-2020,and evaluates the infrastructure investment in the above countries in different year intervals.It is found that the social vulnerability of Chinese infrastructure investment in Africa under the impact of terrorist attacks is affected by exposure,sensitivity,and responsiveness,with responsiveness having the highest degree of impact,followed by exposure and sensitivity.Under the threat of terrorist attacks,China’s infrastructure investments in Egypt,Algeria,Nigeria,Mozambique,and South Africa are generally at low levels of social vulnerability;those in Cameroon,Sudan,Kenya,Ethiopia,and the Democratic Republic of Congo are generally at low to medium levels of social vulnerability;and those in Niger are generally at medium to High levels of social vulnerability.Combining the above studies and in view of the actual characteristics of different countries,the security interest protection path of China’s investment in African countries is proposed from three aspects.In terms of reducing exposure,it should participate in anti-terrorism cooperation and help eliminate terrorist threats in African countries;focus on information security and strengthen the protection of investment promotion information;and improve investment strategies to reduce the degree of attention.In terms of reducing sensitivity,we should improve physical resilience of infrastructure and enhance impact resistance;improve security management force and enhance resistance efficiency;and better integrate into local areas and enhance resilience foundation.In terms of improving coping power,we should improve forward-looking capabilities and improve prevention and early warning;make comprehensive use of resources and improve emergency response capabilities;and focus on repair and reconstruction to improve recovery capabilities.