Study On Spatial Disequilibrium And Driving Factors Of Global Overseas Investment In Cultivated Land

With the non-balanced development of global grain production pattern becoming more and more obvious,countries all over the world have put food security into the first strategic place of national security system.For a long time,the rapid increase of population and the obvious improvement of diet structure brought by the acceleration of globalization have made the contradiction of more people and less land become more and more obvious.In addition,non-traditional factors such as bio-energy,speculative capital and climate change have increased the volatility of the global food security situation and further exacerbated the concerns of countries about food supply security.Therefore,in order to meet the growing demand for food and access to more food resources,countries around the world began to look to invest in overseas arable land.According to statistics from international organization Land Matrix,as of April 2022,a total of 2,666 overseas farmland investment projects have been completed,mainly in Africa,Asia,Eastern Europe and Latin,the total area is 83,420,900 ha.Since the 18 th Party Congress,General Secretary Xi has repeatedly stressed the importance of food security and proposed a new national strategy for food security,“Focusing on China,ensuring production capacity,moderate imports and scientific and technological support”.Making use of “Two markets and two resources” as a whole has become an important adjustment of China’s current food security strategy.China,the world’s most populous nation,is under severe pressure to produce its own grain.With the implementation of the “Going global” strategy in agriculture and the improvement of its own Comprehensive National Power,Chinese companies have spontaneously participated in the global trend of overseas investment in arable land.According to Land Matrix statistics,as of April 2022,Chinese enterprises have invested in 175 overseas farmland investment projects in 32 countries,with a total area of 7,043,800 ha.The main objective of this paper is to study the spatial disequilibrium of overseas farmland investment and identify the key driving factors.First,we selected data from the Land Matrix database on global overseas farmland investment transactions since 2000,by using the data visualization software Gephi,we can analyze the overall situation of overseas farmland investment,the investment situation of key investing countries,the investment situation of key host countries and the investment situation of Chinese overseas farmland investment,the global investment status of overseas cultivated land was introduced.Secondly,by using the kernel density estimation method and spatial autocorrelation method,the spatial clustering characteristics of overseas farmland investment projects and the spatial distribution characteristics of overseas farmland investment host countries are demonstrated.Based on this,the spatial disequilibrium characteristics and trends of overseas investment in cultivated land were studied by using the Theil index method.Finally,based on the theory of agricultural outward investment,spatial production theory and regional economic non-equilibrium development theory,the paper puts forward a driving factor analysis framework for the spatial non-equilibrium of overseas farmland investment,the key driving factors were identified by OLS stepwise regression model and GWR model.The conclusions are as follows:(1)the distribution of overseas cultivated land investment projects in the world is non-equilibrium,showing certain spatial clustering characteristics.According to the distribution of agglomeration areas,there are high degree of agglomeration countries in every continent,and the highest nuclear density values are found in European countries such as Russia,Belarus,Moldova and Ukraine.(2)the overall spatial characteristics of the host country of overseas farmland investment are as follows:the distribution of the host country has obvious spatial correlation pattern;The larger the area contracted for overseas farmland investment,the higher the area contracted in other areas clustered around the country,the smaller the area contracted for overseas farmland investment,the smaller the area contracted in other areas clustered around the country.(3)as a whole,the high-value areas of non-equilibrium level among the host countries of overseas farmland investment in Shanghai are mainly concentrated in East Africa and Southeast Asia and their adjacent regions,Russia,Kazakhstan,China and parts of Latin are among the low-value regions.High-value areas of unbalanced levels within the host country region are concentrated in the South Andes and Río-de-la-Plata Basin,north-west African Mauritania and Morocco,East African Ethiopia and Tanzania,and parts of the former Soviet Union and south-east Asian countries.The Far Eastern Federal District,Kazakhstan,China and Latin n Brazil are low.(4)the two variables of cultivated land per capita and net inflow of foreign direct investment are the key factors affecting the regional imbalance of overseas cultivated land investment in host countries;The key factors influencing the unbalanced level of overseas investment in cultivated land in host countries are the total area of cultivated land,cereal yield,per capita fresh water resources,inflation rate,per capita GDP,total labor force and legal rights intensity index.Overseas investment in cultivated land is a kind of transnational investment activity involving specific industries and main bodies,which presents obvious spatial disequilibrium in its development process.At present,overseas farmland investment activities have become an important part of China’s agricultural going-out strategy,to identify and quantitatively measure the spatial imbalance of global overseas farmland investment development,and to identify its key driving factors is to solve China’s agriculture to go out where to go and other related issues of top priority.In particular,it has promoted the sound development of China’s overseas farmland investment,and provided a workable basis for its determination,but also for the optimization of our overseas farmland investment,the relevant departments to formulate corresponding policies,in particular,the establishment of China’s overseas farmland investment development strategy and policy provides a realistic basis,and further promote resource coordination and cooperation between different countries and regions to achieve win-win development.