The Impact Of Chinese House Price On Household Fertility Intention

After 20 years of fluctuating decline,the domestic fertility rate has fallen below 10 ‰for the first time this year,and the marriage rate had also been steadily dropping in recent years.However,theoretically,the growth of population,especially the growth of population who settle down and plan to buy suites,are the key to support the long-term and healthy development of the economy.So how can we solve the problem of declining fertility? And why has fertility intention been declining? The reasons for the decline in fertility intention is internally related to the rise of house prices.From families’ perspective,the delay of marriage and the decline of marriage rate caused by rising house prices reduced the desire to have children.On the other hand,in term of the transition of the economy and society,the rapid economic development,the improvement of women’s economic status and the workfamily balance have also played a important role.The Women whose working hours are increased by the rise of house prices find it more difficult to balance work and family,so they reduce fertility intention.From the perspective of traditional culture,compared with other countries,East Asian countries generally pay more attention to education and compete in education expenditure,which also leads to higher fertility intention decline.Based on the theoretical mechanism analysis,this thesis uses the CHFS database of China’s Household Financial Survey to analyze the impact of house price on fertility intention and the transmission mechanism of house price on fertility intention through logit model,differential GMM model and panel data OLS model.And the research is carried out by changing empirical methods,changing databases,adding interactive items using "three-step method" model and so on.Then the heterogeneity analysis is carried out through sub sample regression.The conclusions are as follows: firstly,house price has a significant negative effect on fertility intention,and then family education expenditure plays a positive promoting function on this effect.Secondly,house price indirectly reduces fertility intention by delaying marriage or increasing women’s labor participation.Finally,house price has heterogeneity on fertility intention of different groups.