Research On The Influencing Factors Of Low Fertility For Different Groups In Urban And Rural Areas

After the rapid increase of population,the problem of low fertility has become a difficult problem for all countries in the world.At present,China’s fertility rate is declining.The government has issued a large number of policies and continuously liberalized birth restrictions in order to stabilize the fertility rate,but the effect is not ideal.In this situation,China’s family planning national policy has also changed from the initial "late marriage,late childbearing,less birth and better birth" to "age-appropriate marriage and childbearing,better birth and better education".Therefore,seeking the reasons for the low fertility rate and sorting out the factors affecting fertility will help to introduce more targeted policies and grasp and study the policies in the process of transformation,It is of great significance to explore the effect of "age appropriate marriage and childbirth" from the perspective of fertility.Firstly,through the existing research on the impact mechanism of fertility,this paper divides the problem of low fertility,transforms the problem of low fertility into the reduction of fertility behavior from the micro personal perspective,and then investigates the fertility decision-making process.When ignoring physiological factors,the reduction of fertility behavior is attributed to the downturn of fertility will.Therefore,the fertility intention is adopted as the foothold of fertility rate,and the expected number of children is used to reflect the individual fertility intention.The influencing factors of fertility intention of different fertility history and urban and rural background groups are comprehensively investigated.This paper systematically collates and empirically studies the influencing factors demonstrated in the existing literature,selects demographic factors such as age and gender,socio-economic factors such as endowment insurance and medical insurance,and regional factors to establish Poisson regression model,and compares the influencing factors of the expected number of children of different groups through seemingly unrelated model,The heterogeneity of fertility willingness of different groups under different influencing factors was tested.Among the demographic factors,it is found that the effects of demographic indicators such as age and gender are similar among different groups.The impact of education on fertility intention is heterogeneous,and the difference in the performance of compulsory education and higher education on fertility intention between urban and rural populations is more significant;The of socio-economic factors are specific in different groups,and some of them are different from the existing studies.Intergenerational support is not significant in unmarried groups,but it has a significant impact in married groups.In terms of housing,medical treatment and so on,there are differences between urban and rural areas.The impact of endowment insurance on the number of children in different groups is consistent and significant;Finally,from the regional characteristics,it can be found that the low fertility intention in the super first tier cities is very significant,and the villages near the super first tier cities have also been affected,with the possibility of spillover.Then,it investigates the age at which the latest policy finally obtains "appropriate marriage and childbearing".From the perspective of micro individuals,it defines the appropriate age as the ideal marriage age,and makes a difference between the actual age of unmarried groups and the ideal marriage age,introducing the absolute value effect and symbolic effect.The absolute value effect is used to measure the degree of deviation,and the symbolic effect is used to measure whether the deviation direction is "left" or "right".In the research process,it is found that the absolute value effect hinders the fertility intention,that is,when the actual age is far from the ideal marriage age,the fertility intention is significantly inhibited.In the symbolic effect,compared with the actual age close to the ideal marriage age,the impact of the actual age less than the ideal marriage age on the number of expected children is not significant,but there is a significant impact when the actual age is greater than the ideal marriage age.Therefore,once the marriage and childbirth is later than the expected marriage and childbearing time,the number of expected children will increase significantly,which indicates that marriage and childbirth slightly later than the expected marriage and childbearing time can have higher fertility desire.The current "age-appropriate marriage and childbirth" policy is a relatively optimal solution from the Perspective of fertility willingness,If individuals can marry and have children a little later than their ideal marriage age,they may have "compensation psychology" and significantly improve their fertility intention.In order to ensure the robustness of the model,this paper introduces subjective scale data such as job satisfaction,marriage satisfaction and care about maintenance expenses,so that the respondents can indicate their subjective attitude by scoring,and ensure the robustness of variable measurement by incorporating subjective satisfaction into the model and replacing the corresponding objective indicators,And by replacing the model to ensure the rationality of the model establishment effect.Finally,observe the changes of relevant coefficients to get a robust qualitative conclusion.Finally,according to the existing conclusions,from a macro perspective,this paper puts forward policies to improve medical care,stabilize house prices and ensure employment for different groups,paying more attention to housing for urban groups and pension for rural groups;For unmarried groups,the influencing factors of reproductive intention are the top priority.It is necessary to ensure the employment of unmarried groups.For married groups,cost support alleviates the pressure of family support to some extent,which needs to be focused and promoted.From the perspective of micro individuals,it is necessary to stimulate individuals to get married ahead of their expected age,and a typical and common way of stimulation is "urging marriage".Therefore,the research on "age-appropriate marriage and childbearing" confirms the rationality and inevitability of the phenomenon of "urging marriage" to some extent.At the same time,the policy concept of "age appropriate marriage and childbearing" has also significantly promoted the rise of fertility willingness.As a relatively optimal solution,it is worth implementing.