Research On The Impact Of Long-term Care Insurance On Labor Transfer

Since entering the 21 st century,China has entered an aging society.The continuous decline in the birth rate and the continuous increase in the average life expectancy of the population further exacerbate the aging situation.The aging of the population has led to a rapid growth in the number of disabled elderly people,which has led to a gradual increase in the demand for elderly care.In order to meet the growing demand for elderly care,on the basis of learning from the development experience of the long-term care insurance system in developed countries such as Germany and Japan,the Chinese government started the pilot work of the long-term care insurance system at the national level in 2016.On the other hand,economic growth is the main source of stimulating labor demand or labor transfer.However,in the face of the normalization of low-speed economic growth and many uncertain economic factors,exploring economic and social policies to promote the free flow of labor in China has become an important issue to alleviate the social mechanism obstacles to labor mobility.Based on the above realistic background,this thesis empirically evaluates the effect of long-term care insurance on labor transfer.This thesis selects the panel data of 236 cities from 2014 to 2019,takes Guangzhou,Qingdao,Chengdu,Suzhou,Nantong and other 12 pilot cities as the treatment group,and uses the other 224 non-pilot cities as the control group.)to explore the impact of long-term care insurance on labor transfer after the implementation of the national pilot policy in 2016.The study found that: on the whole,the long-term care insurance policy had a significant effect on labor transfer,and 62,646 labors were transferred after the policy was implemented.And from the parallel trend test,the placebo test,the replacement of the measurement method,and the exclusion of policy interference,the robustness test is carried out,which supports the reliability of the research in this paper to a certain extent.Further mechanism analysis results show that long-term care insurance can improve wage income and public service levels,which in turn will promote the transfer of labor to pilot cities.Heterogeneity analysis shows that the impact of long-term care insurance policies on labor transfer will have different effects due to heterogeneity in four aspects:geographical characteristics,financing models,protection objects and financial financing constraints.(1)After the implementation of the long-term care insurance policies in eastern and central cities,there will be labor inflows,but in western cities,there will be labor outflows.(2)Diversified funding sources did not significantly improve the effect of longterm care insurance on labor transfer.The specific performance is as follows: in the medical insurance fund transfer model and the medical insurance fund transfer plus individual payment model,the promotion effect of labor transfer is more obvious;In the medical insurance fund transfer plus financial subsidy model,due to the factors of low financial subsidy efficiency and the game of various financing channels,the inhibitory effect of labor transfer is stronger.At the same time,any three or more mixed financing mechanisms,such as medical insurance fund transfer,financial subsidies,unit payment,individual payment and lottery public welfare,have no significant effect on the transfer of population labor.(3)For the insured objects that only involve the urban employee medical insurance insured population,long-term care insurance plays a role in promoting labor transfer;while for the insured object covers the urban employee medical insurance insured population and the urban and rural residents medical insurance insured population,long-term care insurance plays a role in promoting labor transfer.Insurance appears to be inhibiting.(4)From the perspective of financial financing constraints,the smaller the financial pressure of pilot cities,the greater the role of the long-term care insurance system in promoting labor transfer.And,long-term care insurance has a greater positive impact on labor transfer in pilot cities located in areas with lower central transfer payments.