Research On Heterogeneity Of The Impact Of College Enrollment Expansion On Return To Education Of Labor Force

The "14th Five-Year Plan" for national economic and social development clearly pointed out that a high-quality education system and high-skilled talents are the core of realizing the innovation-driven endogenous growth model,and also the key to realizing the new development pattern of "dual circulation".As the top of the education chain,higher education is in line with the needs of our country’s economic transition,and paying more attention to its scale expansion and quality improvement,and moving from an elite-oriented to a universal development stage.By 2020,the number of students in various forms of higher education in my country will reach41.83 million,the gross enrollment rate of higher education is 54.4%,and the average number of years of education for the working population will reach 10.8 years.However,in this process,the access to education opportunities for workers has not been fair,and the problem of excessive income gap between labor groups is still severe.In this context,this paper quantitatively estimates the implementation effect of the policy of expanding enrollment in colleges and universities,and focuses on analyzing the difference in the rate of return on education among different labor groups,which can not only effectively help families optimize educational investment decisions,but also help our country balance regional development and narrow the gap between the rich and the poor,and providing a theoretical basis for policy-making to promote educational equity.Based on Human Capital Theory,MMI Hypothesis Theory,Screening Hypothesis Theory,and Labor Market Discrimination Theory,this paper uses the second phase of the China General Social Survey(CGSS)micro-data to make a statistical analysis on the changes in the education level and wage income level of Chinese workers.Taking the 1999 college enrollment expansion policy as a quasi-natural experiment,we carry out the regression discontinuity design(RDD)and evaluate the implementation effect of the policy accurately through the calculation of the return on education.We will also focus on the difference between genders,household registrations,regions,and incomes,and refines the research on the heterogeneity of educational returns under the policy of expanding enrollment.The study found that the enrollment expansion policy can effectively increase the individual’s education period by 0.35 years,increase the individual’s income level by 5.8%,and the education rate of return is16.8%.In terms of the heterogeneity on the education rate of return,Males are higher than females;Urban registered laborers are higher than rural registered laborers;Laborers in eastern regions are higher than laborers in central and western regions;High-income groups are lower than low-income groups;And the effect of enrolment expansion policy on improving the years of education among different groups is as follows: males are higher than females,urban areas are higher than rural areas,eastern areas are higher than central and western areas,high-income groups are higher than the low-income groups.In response to the problems exposed at various dimensions in the research,this paper puts forward five targeted policy recommendations in order to narrow the income gap between labor groups and eliminate the Matthew effect between the rich and the poor.The suggestions are as follows: Improving the quality of higher education teaching and guiding workers to make reasonable decision;Guaranteeing women’s right to receive education,and addressing gender discrimination in the labor market;Increasing rural education support to eliminate urban and rural stratification;Coordinating the coordinated development of different regions and encouraging employment in the central and western regions;Popularizing student loan policies and focusing on economic assistance for poor groups.