Can College Enrollment Expansion Policy Promote Economic Growth?

China’s economy is in a critical period of transition from high-speed growth to high-quality development.However,China’s demographic dividend is gradually fading,so it needs to find new development impetus.Based on the analysis of the trend of the enrollment of college and graduate students since 1997,we can find that the enrollment of students has been increasing,the expansion of enrollment scale means that more college graduates enter the job market,which increases the number of high-quality labor force in China and may contribute to the rapid growth of China’s economy.However,in recent years,college graduates have been frequently frustrated in the employment market,and the problem of difficult employment is becoming more and more serious.It is controversial whether higher education can promote economic growth.In addition,the economic development of our country is restricted by environmental quality,and the impact of higher education expansion policy on economic growth may be related to environmental quality.Therefore,in this context,it is of great significance to deeply analyze the impact of higher education enrollment expansion policy on economic growth and the role of environmental quality in it.Based on the panel data of 284 prefecture-level cities from 2000 to 2019,this paper empirically analyzes the impact of higher education enrollment expansion policy on economic growth and the adjustment of environmental quality based on signal screening theory and human capital theory.Firstly,the expected effect test and parallel trend test are carried out to demonstrate the feasibility of establishing the differential model.Secondly,the continuous DID model is used to carry out the reference regression,and the robustness of the results is demonstrated by PSM-DID.instrumental variable method,standard DID,control of potential interference factors,etc.Thirdly,this paper analyzes the heterogeneity from three perspectives:the region of the city,the intensity of environmental regulation and the level of the city,and uses the intermediary effect model to analyze the influence mechanism of the expansion of higher education policy promoting economic growth from three ways:innovation effect,foreign investment effect and quantity effect of colleges and universities.Finally,the paper analyzes the adjustment effect of environment related factors on the expansion of higher education policy from the perspective of environmental quality,to provide policy reference for sustainable development of our city.Based on the above theoretical and empirical analysis,this paper draws the following conclusions:(1)The policy of higher education enrollment expansion in 1999 promoted the economic growth of all cities,and the economic growth of cities with abundant higher education resources was faster than that of cities with scarce higher education resources;(2)The promotion effect of higher education enrollment expansion policy on economic growth presents regional heterogeneity,environmental regulation intensity heterogeneity,provincial capital heterogeneity;(3)Higher education enrollment expansion policy promotes urban economic growth through green invention patent,foreign investment and the number of colleges and universities,among which the number effect of colleges and universities plays a dominant role;(4)The promotion degree of higher education enrollment expansion policy on economic growth is affected by environmental quality.The better the environmental quality is and the more environmental laws and regulations are implemented,the more obvious the promotion effect of higher education enrollment expansion policy on economic growth.