Research On The Effects Of Population Agglomeration On Urban Economic Resilience In The Yellow River

In recent years,major events have occurred frequently worldwide,with natural disasters,financial crises,and public health events becoming important factors leading to economic instability due to their suddenness.Resilience is an important manifestation of a city’s ability to respond to internal and external shocks and restore economic development.Therefore,the report of the 20 th National Congress of the Communist Party of China proposes to "build livable,resilient,and smart cities".The Yellow River Basin spans nine major provinces in China,with its unique natural and economic characteristics easily affected by external shocks such as financial crises.From 2007 to 2019,the economic growth rate decreased by about 8.2%.Therefore,improving the economic resilience of cities in the Yellow River Basin is the key to achieving high-quality development and national strategy.Among them,population agglomeration is an important factor affecting the resilience of urban economy,and it is also an effective measure to enhance the resilience of urban economy,in line with the strategic requirements of the country’s "promoting new urbanization centered on people".This article first reviews previous research literature to clarify the connotation of population agglomeration and urban economic resilience.After elucidating the theories of agglomeration economy,human capital,path dependence,and complex adaptive systems,it explores the mechanism of population agglomeration on urban economic resilience.Secondly,81 cities in the Yellow River basin from 2008 to 2019 are selected as the research objects,and the population concentration ratio index is used to measure the urban population concentration in the Yellow River basin;Next,based on the cyclical fluctuations of GDP,we will determine the urban economic resilience measurement from 2008 to 2019,with 2008 as the boundary.Finally,to explore how population agglomeration affects urban economic resilience after the 2008 financial crisis,in order to overcome the economic downturn and restore economic growth.Therefore,from the perspective of population agglomeration,taking the panel data of 81 cities in the economic Yellow River basin from 2008 to 2019 as samples,this paper uses the double fixed model and the regulatory effect to explore the impact of population agglomeration in the Yellow River basin on urban economic resilience and its mechanism,and puts forward corresponding policy recommendations.Research has found that: firstly,the overall population agglomeration in the Yellow River Basin shows a fluctuating downward trend,and the internal agglomeration in the region presents a pattern of "dense in the southeast and sparse in the northwest".The top ten cities with an increase in population agglomeration ranking are mostly small and mediumsized cities,except for provincial capital cities.Secondly,the economic resilience of cities in the Yellow River Basin shows a trend of significant decline,brief increase,and continuous decline,showing a trend of agglomeration and gradual enhancement in space.Thirdly,population agglomeration in the Yellow River Basin has a positive effect on enhancing urban economic resilience.Among them,population agglomeration has a positive regulatory effect through innovation investment and industrial structure upgrading,while population agglomeration has a positive impact on urban economic resilience through negative regulation of environmental pollution.Fourthly,the degree of population agglomeration and the heterogeneity of urban scale and urban areas vary.The population agglomeration in the Yellow River Basin also has different effects on improving urban economic resilience.The higher the degree of population agglomeration,the stronger its promoting effect.The driving effect of population agglomeration in large and above cities is lower than that in small and medium-sized cities,and the positive impact of population agglomeration in the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River Basin is much higher than that in upstream cities.Based on theoretical viewpoints and empirical analysis results,targeted suggestions are proposed to promote the economic resilience of cities in the Yellow River Basin: firstly,reasonable planning of population agglomeration and promotion of ecological environment construction;Secondly,enhance urban exchanges and cooperation,and promote regional coordinated development;Thirdly,promote the upgrading of industrial structure and enhance the core competitiveness of cities;Fourthly,increase investment in watershed innovation and strengthen urban economic resilience;Fifth,improve the construction of supporting facilities to ensure the smooth operation of the economy.