Network Evolution Characteristics And Influencing Factors Of Interprovincial Migration In China

Since the reform and opening up,one of the remarkable characteristics of China’s social and economic development is the continuous and gradually expanding population flow among regions.China’s economic growth is closely related to the dividend of the labor market.The migration population with certain stability has a profound impact on the development pattern of China’s social and economic.Population migration in different times has its own characteristics.Based on the data of inter-provincial population migration in the Fifth,sixth and seventh national population censuses,this paper constructs a population migration network and studies the spatial distribution,network evolution characteristics and influencing factors of population migration with the spatial correlation between provinces as the entry point.The process of the paper is as follows: Firstly,the literature and theories of population migration are reviewed and sorted out in depth,the influencing factors and mechanism of population migration are analyzed,and the theoretical basis of the research is built.Secondly,based on the data from the fifth to the seventh population censuses,descriptive analysis and complex network analysis methods are used to analyze the scale,intensity and spatial clustering of inter-provincial population migration in China from the perspective of the overall structure,node centrality,clustering characteristics and community division of the network.Finally,this paper uses exploratory spatial statistical methods,gravity model and spatial OD model to empirically study the spatial characteristics and influencing factors of interprovincial population migration in China,and then puts forward corresponding countermeasures and suggestions on this basis.The findings are as follows: Firstly,the spatial pattern of inter-provincial population migration in China from the central and western regions to the southeast coastal areas has a certain stability during the study period.The overall scale and intensity of population migration increased significantly during the fifth to sixth census period,while the overall scale and intensity of population migration decreased during the sixth to seventh census period.Secondly,from the perspective of space,the characteristics of small world in the inter-provincial migration network are continuously strengthened,and the connections and mobility among provinces and cities in the migration network are enhanced.The 31 provinces and cities have roughly formed three spatial clusters: the northern community,the Yangtze River Delta community and the Southern China community.From the perspective of time,the spatial imbalance of inter-provincial population migration network in China during the period from the fifth to the seventh population censuses,in the past 20 years was weakened,and the migration backflow phenomenon was obvious,which was mainly reflected in the migration backflow from eastern regions to central and southwestern provinces and cities.In particular,the status of Sichuan and Hubei provinces in the migration network was greatly improved,and the inflow degree increased significantly.Thirdly,the empirical study on the influencing factors of China’s inter-provincial population migration shows that the spatial OD model considering the spatial autocorrelation of migration place,migration place and migration flow is superior to the gravity model.There is a significant spatial autocorrelation in China’s inter-provincial population migration flow,and the spatial autocorrelation effect between migration place and migration place can promote the increase of inter-provincial population migration flow.The per capita GDP,wage level and population base are positively correlated with the size of migrant population.From the sixth census to the seventh census period,the influence of correlation factors such as distance and space on population migration is weakening along with the development of transportation and the deepening of inter-provincial population migration network.The proportion of local output value in the original area and destination unemployment rate are no longer important variables affecting the scale of population migration,and the negative impact of disposable income in the original area is significantly enhanced.