| Since the reform and opening up,China has witnessed rapid economic development and continuous social progress,which are mainly attributable to the advantages brought by the "demographic dividend".But with China’s population in the process of transformation to modernization,the population structure has changed significantly.China has stepped into an aging society since 2000,and the aging problem has become increasingly serious.Aging is a great event related to the overall development of the national economy.We should treat aging with an optimistic attitude.The aging society is a necessary stage of human development,and there are both challenges and opportunities in this stage.As the population ages,China’s economy is about to shift from high-speed growth in the period of demographic dividend to sustainable growth with scientific and technological innovation as the primary driving force for development.Therefore,the study of the influence of aging population on technological innovation is conducive to promoting the high-quality development of China’s economy,which has strong theoretical value and practical significance.In order to study the influence of population aging on technological innovation,this paper mainly carries out research from two aspects: theoretical research and empirical test.Firstly,the literature on this issue at home and abroad is reviewed to find a breakthrough point for this study.Secondly,the theory of population aging and technological innovation is elaborated to provide a theoretical basis for exploring the relationship between population aging and technological innovation.Thirdly,based on the two extended intergenerational overlap models,this paper analyzes the mechanism of the influence of population aging on technological innovation from the perspectives of private human capital investment and public human capital investment respectively.At the same time,from the perspective of government scale,financial development level,openness to the outside world and so on,the paper analyzes whether the aging population has a heterogeneous impact on technological innovation.Finally,the paper describes the development status of population aging and technological innovation.Based on the panel data of China’s provincial level from 2003 to 2020,the paper uses the benchmark regression model and threshold effect model to conduct empirical test,and specifically analyzes the impact of population aging on technological innovation.The main research conclusions are as follows:(1)Overall,population aging has a significant promoting effect on technological innovation.By dividing technological innovation into two types: fundamental innovation and incremental innovation,it is found that aging has a stronger promoting effect on incremental innovation than fundamental innovation.In addition,the influence of population aging on technological innovation also presents regional heterogeneity,showing that the promoting effect of population aging on technological innovation in the western region is stronger than that in the eastern region.(2)Private human capital investment is the mechanism variable of population aging affecting technological innovation.Population aging promotes technological innovation by promoting private human capital investment.At the same time,public human capital investment is also the mechanism variable of population aging affecting technological innovation.Different from the mechanism variable of private human capital investment,population aging will have a negative impact on technological innovation by inhibiting public human capital investment.(3)Due to the different innovation conditions such as government scale and financial development level between regions,population aging has a significant single threshold effect on technological innovation under different government scale,and a significant double threshold effect on technological innovation under different financial development level,which is manifested as the region with larger government scale and higher financial development level.The greater the role of aging in promoting technological innovation.Finally,based on the above research results,corresponding policy recommendations are put forward. |
