An Empirical Study On The Impact Of Population Aging On Economic Growth From The Perspective Of Technological Innovation

Population aging is an irreversible basic national condition in China in the 21st century,which has far-reaching effects on macroeconomic operation and social and livelihood protection.The aging process usually goes through two important demographic inflection points-the working-age population inflection point and the total population inflection point.At present,the inflection point of the working-age population in China has appeared in 2010.According to the National Health Commission,China’s total population will enter a negative growth phase during the 14th Five-Year Plan period.This indicates that the 14th Five-Year Plan period will be the last planning period of China’s population growth in this century,and this period is also an important stage for China’s society to move from light aging to moderate aging.Therefore,to clarify the relationship between population aging and economic growth,to seek better "answer" ideas on this basis,and to alleviate the possible impact of aging on China’s economic growth and social development is the top priority of future policy planning.In the outline of the 14th Five-Year Plan,it is pointed out that we should adhere to the core position of innovation in the overall situation of China’s modernization,and fight the battle of key core technologies.Technological innovation is an important driving force for stable economic growth on the one hand,and is also closely related to the aging population on the other.Under the trend of deepening population aging in China,the drive of economic growth is changed from labor and physical capital scale drive to innovation drive,and improving technological innovation is undoubtedly an effective choice for China to accelerate the transformation of economic development mode and better adapt to the aging society.However,the continuous increase of population aging will inevitably have an impact on China’s technological innovation and economic growth.Therefore,in exploring the relationship between population aging and economic growth,it is necessary to consider the role of technological innovation in the process.Accordingly,this paper investigates the impact of population aging on economic growth from the perspective of technological innovation,based on the mediating effect model,in an attempt to understand more clearly the paths through which population aging affects economic growth and the role played by technological innovation,and then to explore the favorable factors that can promote economic growth.The subsequent empirical research mainly includes the following:firstly,through the analysis of theories and mechanisms,the path of population aging affecting economic growth is found and the relevant indicators are selected accordingly.Secondly,based on the previous static mediation effect test procedure,the dynamic mediation effect test procedure applicable to this study is set for the subsequent analysis.After that,the data of 30 provinces(autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the central government)excluding Hong Kong,Macao,Taiwan and Tibet from 2000 to 2019 and the estimation method of systematic GMM are used to investigate the impact of population aging on economic growth and the role of technological innovation in it since China has entered into an aging population society.On this basis,the results of the impact of population aging on economic growth from the perspective of technological innovation are explored in a period-by-period basis,using the first inflection point of China’s population in 2010 as the boundary.Further,the sample is divided into eastern and central-western regions,and the estimation method of LSDVC is applied accordingly to test the regional heterogeneity of the mediating effect of technological innovation.The results show that,overall,population aging in China has a negative effect on economic growth,and technological innovation has a mitigating effect on this negative effect.By period,the positive effect of technological innovation before the first demographic inflection point is stronger than that after the inflection point;by region,the mediating effect of technological innovation is more significant in the western region,while the positive effect of technological innovation on economic growth is more pronounced in the eastern region in the path of population aging affecting economic growth.From the regression results of control variables,the effect of investment on economic growth is significant.The impact of urbanization on economic growth shows period variability and regional heterogeneity.Based on this,this paper proposes the following suggestions:first,implement the strategy of "active aging" to fully exploit the old-age dividend;second,accelerate technological innovation to stimulate the vitality of social innovation;third,promote the construction of new urbanization to enhance the momentum of economic development.