| Since the full implementation of the family planning policy,the development speed of China’s population aging is much faster than that of developed countries entering an aging society.Technological innovation is the primary driving force for social development and an important driving force for social and economic development.This shows that my country’s scientific and technological innovation will be in the environment of an aging population for a long time.Under the background of the aging population structure and the increasing dependence of social development on the ability of scientific and technological innovation,it is of great significance to explore the influence mechanism of population aging on the ability of scientific and technological innovation of cities in my country.Exploring ways to promote urban scientific and technological innovation is conducive to relying on scientific and technological innovation and scientifically responding to population aging.This paper takes 35 central cities in China as the research objects,and firstly measures population aging scientifically from the three dimensions of development degree,development speed and development quality.Scientifically measure the technological innovation capability from the perspective of technological innovation input-output.Secondly,use Arc GIS 10.7 software to systematically analyze the temporal and spatial patterns of population aging and technological innovation in central cities,and explore the overall pattern and changes of the three dimensions of population aging,and the overall pattern and changes of technological innovation capabilities.Then,the system cluster analysis method is used to classify the central cities,and the entropy weight TOPSIS method is used to analyze the differences of population aging in the types of cities.Finally,based on the panel data of central cities and using Stata15.0 software,a threshold regression model is constructed to calculate the threshold impact of population aging on the technological innovation of central cities under different classifications.The results show:（1）From the perspective of the manifestations of population aging,a comprehensive evaluation system should be constructed including the three dimensions of development degree,development speed and development quality to comprehensively measure population aging.The scientific calculation of the development dimension indices of population aging shows that there are significant differences in the uneven development characteristics of population aging at different levels.（2）The three dimensions of population aging development and the overall pattern and development changes of technological innovation are analyzed,and it is found that the proportion of population aging at different development levels during the study period presents a hierarchical pattern of "inverted pyramid" growth.The development speed of most cities fluctuates back and forth between different levels,and more cities have joined the ranks of higher development speed.Cities with high development quality are mostly concentrated in eastern and northeastern cities.The number of central cities with high-level innovation capabilities has gradually increased.Cities with higher technological innovation levels are concentrated in the eastern coastal areas and many cities along the Yangtze River.Cities with low innovation levels are mainly distributed in the central and western regions.（3）Using the comprehensive evaluation criteria of population aging and the method of systematic cluster analysis,the 35 central cities are divided into four categories（super-aging,deep-aging,aging and weak-aging）.These four types of cities are in different stages in terms of development degree（deep,shallow,and adult population）,development speed（fast,medium,and slow）,and development quality（strong quality）.The study found that four types of cities are in different stages.The development of population aging in China has deepened to different degrees,and the evolution trend of aging has generally kept pace with the degree of development and the quality of development.The speed of development is different,but the quality of its development is well guaranteed.With comfortable and convenient medical and nursing services,super-aging cities and deeply-aging cities have improved the quality of their aging development and maintained a good momentum of development.（4）The threshold variable is set as the sub-dimension index of population aging,which measures the heterogeneous threshold impact of population aging on scientific and technological innovation in different types of central cities.The four types of cities have two effects on the scientific and technological innovation of central cities at different levels of population aging.The aging development degree and quality classification index show different threshold effects on urban technological innovation.The development degree has a heterogeneous threshold impact on technological innovation in aging cities and weakly aging cities,and has no threshold effect on the other two types of cities.In super-aging cities,the quality of development has a "U"-shaped threshold effect on scientific and technological innovation,and has different significant effects on scientific and technological innovation before and after the threshold value of 0.2627.In view of the above,the following recommendations are made:（1）Have a comprehensive understanding of population aging.This includes not only mastering the laws of population aging over time and space,but also scientific measurement of population aging;（2）maintaining a positive attitude towards population aging.Accelerate the establishment of an old-age security system for urban and rural employees,and use the demographic dividend as a link to promote technological innovation in central cities;in an aging society,give full play to the coupling role of education and innovation;（3）Promote the upgrading and transformation of the healthy aging industry.Build a new "embedded" old-age care model,realize the efficient connection of multiple community-family operations,and improve the service experience of "home-based care".At the same time,with the help of relevant technical means,the family is the center,the community where the elderly population is located is the driving force,and high-quality services are the foundation to form a new format of healthy elderly care;（4）Promote the comprehensive and coordinated development of central cities.Identify the focal point for improving the city’s scientific and technological innovation capabilities,cross the development threshold of population aging,and formulate reasonable policies based on the city. |
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