Research On The Impact Of The Shanghai Cooperation Organization Population Age Structure On Life Insurance Deman

Since the Shanghai Cooperation Organization(SCO)was officially established in Shanghai,China in 2001,economic cooperation among its member states,observer states and dialogue partners has become increasingly close.With the continuous increase of people’s income level and the constant change of epidemic patterns,the residents of the SCO countries have put forward an urgent demand for life insurance with the function of protecting life and health.In order to introduce life insurance products that better meet the needs of consumers and improve the supply level of insurance companies themselves,life insurance providers operating in SCO countries need to have a clear understanding of the needs of residents for life insurance,and the age structure of the population is an important factor affecting the demand for life insurance.Therefore,it is increasingly urgent for the development of life insurance markets in SCO countries to fully explore the influence and mechanism of the SCO population age structure on residents’ demand for life insurance.In this context,this paper uses the panel data of 21 SCO countries from 1996 to2019 to build a static panel model and a dynamic panel model with first-order lag.Based on the Lewis life insurance demand model,the theoretical mechanism of population age structure on the demand for life insurance is expounded.To empirically examine and analyze the influence and mechanism of the SCO population age structure on the demand for life insurance,and to test the robustness of life insurance by means of instrumental variable method,replacement variable method,replacement measurement method and transformation tail reduction treatment.Then,stepwise test regression coefficient method,Sobel test and Bootstrap test were used to explore the mediating effect mechanism of population age structure on life insurance demand.Finally,heterogeneity analysis was conducted based on religious belief,aging degree and life insurance demand structure.The results show that the increase of the old-age dependency ratio and the child dependency ratio can stimulate the residents’ life insurance demand,and the residents’ life insurance demand has the inertia of continuous payment and renewal.The old-age dependency ratio affects the demand for life insurance by influencing the death rate and disposable income of family dependents,and the mediating effect of the death rate of family dependents is greater than that of disposable income.The child dependency ratio affects the demand for life insurance by affecting the present value of future consumption and personal disposable income of residents,and the intermediary effect of the present value of future consumption of residents is greater than that of personal disposable income.In non-Islamic countries,the old-age dependency ratio has a significant positive effect on life insurance demand,while in Islamic countries,it has a significant negative effect on life insurance demand.There is no religious heterogeneity in the demand for child support ratio.The influence of old-age dependency ratio on life insurance demand in non-aging and aging countries is significantly positive,but it is significantly negative in deeply aging countries.The child dependency ratio has a significant effect on promoting the demand for life insurance in deeply aging and aging countries,but inhibits the demand for life insurance in non-aging countries.The increase of old-age dependency ratio has a significant stimulating effect on the demand of guarantee life insurance,but has no significant effect on the demand of investment life insurance.The child dependency ratio has a significant positive effect on the demand for indemnification life insurance,while it has a significant inhibitory effect on the demand for investment life insurance.Based on the research conclusions,this paper puts forward policy recommendations from the insurance companies and government departments,providing theoretical basis and supply marketing strategies for the insurance companies engaged in life insurance business in SCO,as well as suggestions for government departments to effectively promote the life insurance market and demand.