Development Of A Match Difficulty Index For High-level Professional Soccer League

Soccer as a collective ball games project,the team competitive ability structure system is more complex,facing the opponents,team travel time and space,home and away,foreign aid situational factors such as different games will affect the team’s athletic performance in different degrees,and their teams and rival team in different situations of athletic performance determines the difficulty of the game victory.Literature retrieval shows that the research related to this topic mainly involves quantitative research and model establishment of opponent strength,home advantage,travel factors,foreign aid value and so on,and presents the characteristics and shortcomings of incomplete index inclusion and low prediction accuracy of model.In recent years,with the digitalization of games,it has become difficult for coaches to achieve the most effective planning,command and control of games and daily training only by relying on their subjective experience and perception.Therefore,this study uses the literature method,correlation analysis,variance analysis,general linear analysis and multiple logistic regression method,on the basis of the international high level football league,on the basis of the significance of the theoretical model construction,and uses the ROC curve.It can not only help the coach to make tactical arrangements for the next game,but also provide some enlightenment for the development of the Chinese Football Association Super League with a relatively low competitive level.The study draws the following conclusions and enlightenment:1.The prediction model of game difficulty is constructed by taking team competitive strength,travel time and space factor,home advantage and imported foreign aid value as independent variables,and winning,drawing and losing as three classification dependent variables,and it is considered that the prediction ability of winning,losing and playing is good,good and poor,respectively.2.The core factors of the game difficulty model of international High-level Professional Soccer Leagues and Chinese Super League are different.For international high-level Professional Soccer leagues,the core and key factors are the average price of foreign players and the competitive strength of opponents respectively,while for Chinese Super League,the main factors are home and away variables and the straight distance of the match.3.The correlation degree between the factors of each match situation and the match difficulty is different: In terms of the opponent’s competitive strength,the correlation degree between the match difficulty of Chinese Super League and the opponent in the last five years is the highest,while the correlation degree between the international High-level Professional Football League and the opponent in the last ten years is the highest.In the dimension of travel time and space,the influence of game interval time on the game difficulty can be ignored,while the influence of game linear distance factor on the game difficulty of Chinese Super League is much greater than that of international high-level professional football league.Both home and away have important influence on the prediction model of match difficulty,and the influence on Chinese Super League is greater than that on international high-level professional football league.The influence of the average price of foreign players on the difficulty of international high-level professional football league is greater than that of Chinese Super League.